{"id":23950,"date":"2025-06-04T09:27:02","date_gmt":"2025-06-04T09:27:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=23950"},"modified":"2025-06-04T09:27:02","modified_gmt":"2025-06-04T09:27:02","slug":"dollar-flounders-against-diverging-data-talks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/dollar-flounders-against-diverging-data-talks\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Flounders Against Diverging Data Talks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-25T110732.137-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19185\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDX hovers near <strong>99.09<\/strong>, after briefly touching a session high of <strong>99.31<\/strong>, before paring gains.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trump\u2019s \u201chard to deal with\u201d post on Xi Jinping injects new uncertainty into tariff diplomacy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. dollar index (USDX) drifted lower in late Wednesday trading, closing at <strong>99.091<\/strong>, as FX markets turned cautious ahead of a packed macroeconomic calendar and deepening uncertainty around President Donald Trump\u2019s escalating tariff rhetoric. After touching an intraday high of <strong>99.311<\/strong>, the greenback reversed on lower volumes, pulling back toward the <strong>99.00<\/strong> psychological mark amid mixed macro signals and global noise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets are walking a tightrope. Earlier optimism over U.S.\u2013China negotiations took a hit as Trump posted that Chinese President Xi Jinping is \u201ctough\u201d and \u201chard to make a deal with.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Trump complains China&#39;s Xi is &#39;extremely hard to make a deal with&#39; as Beijing appears poised to deliver a major blow to the US aviation industry: Here is your Evening Briefing. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3H3eZWfzhM\">https:\/\/t.co\/3H3eZWfzhM<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1930189400622723131?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 4, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The blunt social media post, released shortly after news of a potential bilateral call between the two leaders, undercut hopes that a near-term tariff rollback would be agreed upon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Rhv2LItFZ4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">doubled steel and aluminium tariffs<\/a> are now being followed by a hard Wednesday deadline for new offers from U.S. trading partners. However, behind the scenes, the tone is anything but cooperative. While countries like the UK remain exempt due to standing trade agreements, broader investor sentiment remains tethered to tariff uncertainties and the escalating standoff with Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar, traditionally a safe-haven in times of global stress, has struggled to capitalise on risk-off flows. Instead, traders are shifting focus toward near-term fundamentals \u2014 particularly the <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/f8tWPNiDmu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">health of the U.S. labour market<\/a> and services sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Data Divergence Adds Volatility<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The greenback\u2019s choppiness this week reflects a tug-of-war between negative manufacturing signals and surprisingly strong job openings. Monday\u2019s <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/ism-report-on-business\/pmi\/may\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">ISM Manufacturing PMI contraction<\/a><\/strong> sent the dollar tumbling, only for it to recover sharply on Tuesday following an <strong>unexpected uptick in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/jlt\/\">U.S. JOLTS data<\/a><\/strong>, pointing to still-tight labour conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All eyes now turn to today\u2019s <strong>ADP private payrolls<\/strong> and <strong>ISM services print<\/strong>, both seen as leading indicators ahead of Friday\u2019s <strong>nonfarm payrolls<\/strong>. A strong showing in either could firm up the dollar\u2019s footing \u2014 especially if paired with inflationary signals in the ISM\u2019s price component.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the euro rose <strong>0.21%<\/strong> to <strong>$1.1395<\/strong> ahead of the <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/w42JikIejb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">ECB\u2019s Thursday rate decision<\/a>. Sterling ticked up to <strong>$1.3539<\/strong>, helped by tariff immunity and stronger-than-expected May activity figures. The dollar was flat against the yen at <strong>143.95<\/strong>, but down <strong>0.16%<\/strong> versus the Swiss franc \u2014 classic signs of splintered sentiment across G10 currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The USD Index (USDX) is showing signs of near-term exhaustion following a steady climb from the 98.494 low posted during the 3 June session. The price reached an intraday high of 99.311 before facing rejection and pulling back slightly toward the 99.09 mark. Short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) had been trending upward in parallel, confirming bullish momentum until the early hours of 4 June, but have since begun to converge, suggesting waning upward strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-2-1024x445.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23951\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: USDX stalls at 99.31 high as bullish momentum fades; 99.00 now key short-term support to watch, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>MACD momentum has cooled following a brief bullish crossover, with the histogram now contracting into neutral territory. While the overall trend remains marginally positive (0.01%), price is hovering around the psychological 99.00 level, now acting as tentative support. If 99.00 fails to hold, deeper retracement toward the 98.85\u201398.70 range is likely. Upside recovery hinges on reclaiming 99.31 with conviction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The next 48 hours may define the dollar\u2019s trajectory heading into <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/powell20250602a.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">June\u2019s FOMC window<\/a>. Should the jobs data confirm slowing wage growth or easing hiring, the dollar could drift lower \u2014 particularly against yield-sensitive currencies like the euro and Aussie. However, resilient labour figures or further tariff deferrals could offer near-term support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Until then, markets remain stuck between policy ambiguity and economic divergence \u2014 a combination that leaves the dollar vulnerable to data whiplash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Greenback softens near 99.00 handle despite volatile macro backdrop, as traders watch tariff diplomacy and key data points. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":19185,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,11],"class_list":["post-23950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-indices"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23950"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23950\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19185"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}