{"id":22696,"date":"2025-05-20T07:57:25","date_gmt":"2025-05-20T07:57:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=22696"},"modified":"2025-05-20T07:57:25","modified_gmt":"2025-05-20T07:57:25","slug":"crude-oil-pauses-as-market-weighs-diplomacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/crude-oil-pauses-as-market-weighs-diplomacy\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Oil Pauses as Market Weighs Diplomacy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/oil10-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17005\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>WTI July futures dip to $61.97 as Brent holds above $65.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Iran deal uncertainty limits supply outlook; peace talks could alter Russian flows<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Asian refining margins strong, but China\u2019s demand picture weakens.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil prices were little changed on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) July contracts easing to $61.97 and Brent futures for July holding near $65.35. The market is caught in a <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qj1rRpit2c\">tug-of-war between global negotiations<\/a>, strong regional demand in Asia, and a murky economic outlook from China and the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the primary overhangs remains the uncertainty surrounding <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mnLADOByM9\">US-Iran nuclear negotiations<\/a>. Tehran\u2019s Deputy Foreign Minister stated that talks would stall if Washington demands a complete halt to enrichment, a key barrier to reviving the 2015 accord.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil prices little changed as markets weigh impact of US-Iran talks, demand <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZTnek0Vvtd\">https:\/\/t.co\/ZTnek0Vvtd<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZTnek0Vvtd\">https:\/\/t.co\/ZTnek0Vvtd<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1924704184210776090?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 20, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>A successful deal could unleash an estimated 300,000\u2013400,000 barrels per day of Iranian supply, according to StoneX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, positive physical demand signals persist across Asia. Refineries in the region are ramping up post-maintenance activity, backed by strong margins. Singapore\u2019s refining margins\u2014a regional benchmark\u2014averaged over $6 per barrel in May, sharply higher than April\u2019s $4.4, indicating solid profitability that is likely to sustain buying interest in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But gains remain capped as traders digest recent macroeconomic headwinds. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sc0I1VX21V\">Moody\u2019s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt<\/a> has added pressure to an already fragile sentiment around global growth, particularly for the world\u2019s largest oil consumer. Combined with weak industrial output and <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/T12oSqTr3e\">softer retail sales data out of China<\/a>, there\u2019s growing doubt about the sustainability of oil demand recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BMI\u2019s forecast further reinforces this caution, with analysts now expecting a 0.3% year-on-year decline in China\u2019s 2025 oil consumption. \u201cEven if China adopts stimulus measures, it may take time to have a positive impact on oil demand,\u201d they warned in a note.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, energy markets remain fixated on potential developments in <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qj1rRpit2c\">Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations<\/a>. ING noted that any breakthrough deal could trigger a shift in sanctions policy, potentially reopening Russian flows to the global market\u2014adding further pressure to the supply side of the equation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil is trading within a narrow consolidation range after rebounding off the support level at <strong>$60.983<\/strong> and reaching a recent high of <strong>$62.683<\/strong>. The price action on the 15-minute chart has since flattened, with candles compressing just above the 30-period moving average. The short-term moving averages (5 and 10) are beginning to converge, indicating hesitation in directional momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-21-1024x444.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-22697\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: Oil holds above $62 after bounce off $61.00; upside capped at $62.70 as momentum stalls, as seen on the <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD histogram shows waning bullish momentum, with a potential crossover developing near the zero line\u2014suggesting buyers may be losing steam. However, price remains above the mid-range support zone near <strong>$61.80<\/strong>, hinting at stability for now. Resistance stands at <strong>$62.30\u201362.70<\/strong>, while a break below <strong>$61.80<\/strong> could expose the lower bound near <strong>$61.07<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If bulls can reclaim and close above <strong>$62.30<\/strong>, we may see renewed upside attempts. Otherwise, the bias remains neutral to slightly bearish intraday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With prices oscillating between $60.98 and $62.68 on the chart, WTI remains in a consolidation zone, unable to reclaim recent highs without clearer signals from cross-border or macroeconomic data. Traders are advised to remain nimble, watching for movement from <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/jiN5oot47G\">both Washington and Beijing<\/a>, as well as signs of material breakthroughs in global diplomacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil traders eye Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran talks as Asia\u2019s physical demand holds firm, while China\u2019s economic softness and a US downgrade temper upside. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-22696","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22696","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22696"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22696\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22696"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22696"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22696"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}