{"id":22355,"date":"2025-05-15T08:27:55","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T08:27:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=22355"},"modified":"2025-05-15T08:27:55","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T08:27:55","slug":"pound-edges-higher-as-uk-gdp-surprises-to-the-upside","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/pound-edges-higher-as-uk-gdp-surprises-to-the-upside\/","title":{"rendered":"Pound Edges Higher as UK GDP Surprises to the Upside"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/gbp5-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17035\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>GBP\/USD rises to $1.329 after Q1 GDP beats expectations at 0.7% q\/q and 1.3% y\/y.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market pares back aggressive BoE rate cut bets; dollar softness adds tailwind.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Sterling climbed to $1.329 on Thursday, building on gains after stronger-than-expected UK GDP figures signalled economic resilience and cooled market speculation of deeper Bank of England (BoE) easing in the months ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Bank of England will consult investors on how to improve UK bond market resilience in order to avoid a repeat of the 2022 gilt crisis <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tIxp0IJ9UF\">https:\/\/t.co\/tIxp0IJ9UF<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1922600833696387475?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 14, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Quarterly growth registered 0.7%, outpacing economist forecasts closer to 0.4%. Year-on-year, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/economy\/grossdomesticproductgdp\/bulletins\/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk\/januarytomarch2025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">GDP expanded 1.3%<\/a>, painting a rosier picture than recent concerns of stagnation or contraction. The data provided a timely lifeline for sterling, lifting it from an earlier session low of $1.3248.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Sterling staged a recovery after a steep correction from the <strong>1.3360<\/strong> peak, finding intraday support near <strong>1.3248<\/strong> before reclaiming ground above the <strong>1.3280<\/strong> mark. The pair is showing signs of short-term stabilisation, with a mild bullish crossover on the <strong>MACD<\/strong> and momentum gradually shifting back in favour of buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-15-1024x438.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-22356\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: GBP\/USD rebounds from 1.3248 floor, but must clear 1.3305 to challenge bullish momentum, seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the earlier breakdown below the moving averages, the price has now breached back above the <strong>5- and 10-period MAs<\/strong>, indicating a potential shift in sentiment. Still, the <strong>30-period MA<\/strong> remains overhead resistance near <strong>1.3300<\/strong>, which needs to be cleared for continued upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If bulls manage to reclaim <strong>1.3305<\/strong>, a retest of the <strong>1.3360 high<\/strong> becomes viable. However, a drop back below <strong>1.3260<\/strong> would likely see fresh selling pressure resume.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Bank of England Weighs Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The GDP print has led traders to temper their expectations for how far the <a href=\"https:\/\/uk.finance.yahoo.com\/news\/bank-england-interest-rates-higher-114638664.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">BoE might cut interest rates this year<\/a>. While a single quarter-point cut is still priced in, the case for more aggressive easing has weakened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the pound also benefited from a broader decline in the US dollar. Markets continue to speculate that the <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1Io1CATWWt\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">US may aim for a weaker currency<\/a> in ongoing trade negotiations\u2014a stance that could give foreign currencies like the pound and euro more room to rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the UK data wasn\u2019t uniformly strong. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/markets\/u-k-labor-market-cooled-in-march-ahead-of-rise-in-payroll-taxes\/ar-AA1EF3bm?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Unemployment edged higher<\/a>, and wage growth softened slightly\u2014hinting at possible underlying slack in the labour market. Still, traders appear more focused on the positive GDP narrative, at least in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Sterling may attempt to retest the $1.3360 high if risk sentiment holds and dollar softness persists. However, any signs of BoE dovishness or poor upcoming labour market data could see GBP\/USD return toward the 1.3240\u20131.3250 range. Volatility is likely to remain elevated ahead of next week\u2019s UK CPI print.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>UK economic growth beats forecasts, easing pressure on Bank of England to cut aggressively. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":17035,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[10,58],"class_list":["post-22355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-forex","tag-pound"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22355","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22355"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22355\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}