{"id":21981,"date":"2025-05-13T08:11:43","date_gmt":"2025-05-13T08:11:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=21981"},"modified":"2025-05-13T08:11:43","modified_gmt":"2025-05-13T08:11:43","slug":"oil-holds-ground-after-tariff-truce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/oil-holds-ground-after-tariff-truce\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Holds Ground After Tariff Truce"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/oil9-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17020\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>WTI crude rises 0.2% to $62.09 a barrel after reaching a two-week high of $63.58.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Uncertainty remains around OPEC+ production policy and U.S.-China trade talks post-90-day truce.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices edged up in early Monday trading, holding near recent highs as markets digested the impact of a 90-day pause in U.S.-China tariffs. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 0.2% to $62.09 a barrel, while Brent crude touched $65.08, both maintaining levels last seen in late April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rise follows last week\u2019s broad market rally, which was sparked by President Donald Trump\u2019s surprise announcement to <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/keqgN9F90q\">reduce tariffs on Chinese imports<\/a> from 145% to 30% for a 90-day window. This move restored some trader confidence and reignited risk-on sentiment, though analysts caution the reprieve may prove fleeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Container shippers win China-US tariff reprieve, await volume rebound <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WvsJq3uclA\">https:\/\/t.co\/WvsJq3uclA<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WvsJq3uclA\">https:\/\/t.co\/WvsJq3uclA<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1922147347665985806?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 13, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe move to reduce tariffs for 90 days was certainly more aggressive than many expected,\u201d ING analysts noted. \u201cBut there&#8217;s still plenty of uncertainty over what happens in 90 days.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil (CL-OIL-ECN) saw a sharp breakout from the <strong>$60.21 support<\/strong> zone, lifting aggressively to test a local peak of <strong>$63.58<\/strong> before retracing. The move was driven by a strong MACD crossover and rising histogram bars, signalling bullish momentum through the early stages of 13 May. However, the subsequent decline pulled the price back below the 10- and 30-period moving averages, and the MACD has since flattened, suggesting a potential shift toward consolidation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-11-1024x446.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-21982\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picture: Oil spikes to $63.58 before retreating; support builds at $61.60 as traders eye fresh breakout signs, as seen on the <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>$61.60\u2013$62.00 zone<\/strong> now acts as a short-term equilibrium level. Price has stabilised around this region, and while momentum has cooled, the bulls are still defending key higher lows. A clean reclaim of <strong>$62.50<\/strong> could open the door to another leg higher, but failure to hold above $61.60 risks deeper retracement toward $60.80.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Aside from trade headlines, the market remains focused on supply-side risks. Traders are awaiting a firm stance from OPEC+, which has accelerated output hikes in recent months. A key decision looms in June, when the group will reassess its strategy amid rising global inventories and tepid demand growth forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fitch\u2019s BMI recently warned that non-OPEC supply\u2014particularly from the U.S. and Brazil\u2014is outpacing demand, creating a fragile balance for OPEC+ to manage. If production cuts are not extended or deepened, oil may struggle to sustain gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Short-term price action may remain elevated as traders cling to optimism around global trade diplomacy. However, without a clear signal from OPEC+ or a permanent easing of tariffs, upside potential could be capped. Volatility remains a high risk factor heading into the June production meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Temporary U.S.-China tariff pause lifts crude prices, but market eyes OPEC+ output decisions for direction. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-21981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21981"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21981\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}