{"id":21699,"date":"2025-05-09T05:22:41","date_gmt":"2025-05-09T05:22:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=21699"},"modified":"2025-05-09T05:22:41","modified_gmt":"2025-05-09T05:22:41","slug":"aud-usd-recovers-on-china-export-boost","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/aud-usd-recovers-on-china-export-boost\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD Recovers on China Export Boost"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/aussie9-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16967\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AUD\/USD rebounds to 0.6407 as China\u2019s April exports jump 8.1% y\/y.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weekly losses persist as Fed\u2019s hawkish hold and RBA cut bets pressure Aussie.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Australian dollar climbed to 0.6407 on Friday after upbeat Chinese export data helped pare earlier losses. Still, the pair remains poised for a 0.7% weekly decline, snapping a four-week winning streak amid shifting interest rate expectations and renewed U.S. dollar strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Banks and brokers are seeing rising demand for currency derivatives that bypass the dollar, as trade tensions add a sense of urgency to a years-long shift away from the greenback <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LUyBeHJFRl\">https:\/\/t.co\/LUyBeHJFRl<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1920639912937672882?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 9, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/MisFHXQLBt\">China\u2019s exports rose 8.1%<\/a> in April year-on-year, with factories front-loading shipments ahead of the U.S. tariff hike that took effect earlier this month. Imports declined but at a slower pace, offering relief to commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AUDUSD drifted lower throughout the session, touching a low of <strong>0.63706<\/strong> before staging a modest rebound. The MACD histogram has flipped into bullish territory, with a fresh crossover just as the price began reclaiming ground above the 5- and 10-period moving averages. The short-term recovery appears constructive, but overhead pressure remains near <strong>0.64100\u20130.64200<\/strong>, where the 30-period moving average and prior support-turned-resistance converge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-8-1024x440.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-21700\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Picture: AUDUSD bounces from 0.6370 low with MACD turning bullish, but 0.6420 remains key near-term hurdle, seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For bulls to gain meaningful traction, the pair needs to break and hold above <strong>0.64200<\/strong>, otherwise this may be a corrective bounce within a broader downtrend. A drop back below <strong>0.63900<\/strong> could see momentum reset toward the week\u2019s low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Kiwi Falters and Rates Hold<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Kiwi dollar also slipped, falling 0.2% to 0.5892, extending its weekly decline to 0.9%. A break below 0.5894 marks a bearish signal, though support lingers near the 200-day moving average at 0.5882.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Behind the scenes, a <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/eRFLRVggnR\">hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve<\/a> has scaled back bets on rate cuts this year. Market pricing now implies just 68 basis points of easing in 2025, down from 78 bps a day earlier. This has lifted the dollar across the board, with AUD and NZD underperforming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">President Donald Trump\u2019s trade pivot also drove sentiment. While the Fed held rates steady, Trump\u2019s announcement of a <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yruJIpYcz7\">U.S.-UK trade deal<\/a> and commitment to maintain Chinese tariffs has introduced volatility ahead of the U.S.-China meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rate cut expectations remain firm for the Reserve Bank of Australia, with markets fully pricing a 25bp reduction to 3.85% on May 20. Across the Tasman, the RBNZ is also expected to ease, with Westpac forecasting two cuts this year, citing persistent trade-related headwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Aussie may continue to hover below 0.6450 ahead of next week\u2019s data and central bank expectations. A downside break below 0.6370 could retest 0.6320, while trade optimism could offer temporary support near 0.6410\u20130.6425. Traders remain focused on tariff developments and Fed policy cues for direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rate caution and greenback strength weigh on Aussie and Kiwi despite Chinese trade lift. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16967,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[73,10],"class_list":["post-21699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-aud","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Rate caution and greenback strength weigh on Aussie and Kiwi despite Chinese trade lift. - vtmarkets.com\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/aud-usd-recovers-on-china-export-boost\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO Pro (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\n\t\t<script type=\"text\/javascript\"> (function(c,l,a,r,i,t,y){ c[a]=c[a]||function(){(c[a].q=c[a].q||[]).push(arguments)}; 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19:37:07","breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":false,"open_ai":"{\"title\":{\"suggestions\":[],\"usage\":0},\"description\":{\"suggestions\":[],\"usage\":0}}","ai":null,"created":"2026-03-02 11:29:21","updated":"2026-06-25 19:37:07"},"aioseo_breadcrumb":"<div class=\"aioseo-breadcrumbs\"><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\" title=\"Home\">Home<\/a>\n<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/category\/analysis\/\" title=\"Today&apos;s Analysis\">Today's Analysis<\/a>\n<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\tAUD\/USD Recovers on China Export Boost\n<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia"},{"label":"Today's 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