{"id":20850,"date":"2025-04-15T03:59:55","date_gmt":"2025-04-15T03:59:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=20850"},"modified":"2025-04-15T03:59:55","modified_gmt":"2025-04-15T03:59:55","slug":"dollar-remains-fragile-amidst-tariff-chaos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/dollar-remains-fragile-amidst-tariff-chaos\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Remains Fragile Amidst Tariff Chaos"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-25T110734.903-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19387\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> hovers at <strong>99.466<\/strong>, close to the <strong>three-year low<\/strong> touched last week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>U.S. dollar is down nearly <strong>8% against the Swiss franc<\/strong> this month, on pace for its steepest drop since <strong>2008<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fed\u2019s Waller signals rate cuts could be considered even if <strong>inflation remains elevated<\/strong> due to tariff-related shocks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>U.S. dollar steadied in early Tuesday trade<\/strong> but remained fragile, clinging to support near multi-year lows following a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/04\/10\/freight-orders-surge-on-trump-tariff-reversal-ships-are-filling-up.html\">whipsaw week of tariff policy reversals<\/a><\/strong> and investor rotation out of dollar assets. The <strong>Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> settled at <strong>99.466<\/strong>, down <strong>0.27% on the day<\/strong>, after a volatile stretch that saw it plunge to its <strong>lowest level since July 2023<\/strong>, despite <strong>Treasury yields hitting 20-year highs last week<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The bond market sell-off escalated Friday to cap off one of the most volatile and unusual trading weeks in recent memory as President Trump&#39;s tariff whipsaw sent yields surging as investors fled safe haven assets.<br><br>The 30-year yield jumped 3 basis points to trade near 4.88% \u2014 the\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/e2PbJ6vnTi\">pic.twitter.com\/e2PbJ6vnTi<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1910807040110583905?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 11, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Much of the damage to the dollar has come from Washington\u2019s <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/liOsWY6GhA\">flip-flopping on tariffs<\/a><\/strong>. President Trump <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us-excludes-smartphones-computers-reciprocal-tariffs-2025-04-12\/\">backpedalled after announcing sweeping import duties<\/a><\/strong>, removing some high-profile Chinese consumer goods from the list over the weekend. Markets welcomed the move, but Trump&#8217;s <strong>suggestion that the relief would be temporary<\/strong> further unsettled traders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/currencies\/dollar-steady-traders-grapple-with-tariff-uncertainty-volatility-2025-04-15\/\">Swiss franc surged to a 10-year high<\/a><\/strong> against the greenback last week. Meanwhile, the <strong>yen and euro remain firm<\/strong>, despite some pullback today. The <strong>euro traded at $1.1324<\/strong>, just below its <strong>three-year high of $1.1474<\/strong>, and the <strong>yen at 143.53<\/strong>, only slightly above Friday\u2019s <strong>six-month low of 142.05<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>US Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> continues to consolidate in a tight range following a volatile dip to <strong>98.779<\/strong> on April 12. Since then, price has stabilised, finding a temporary floor above the <strong>99.20\u201399.30 zone<\/strong>, but upside attempts remain shallow and short-lived, with <strong>99.71<\/strong> marking the recent local high. The price has since retraced toward <strong>99.46<\/strong>, now hovering near the <strong>5\/10\/30 MA cluster<\/strong>, suggesting indecision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-15-1024x445.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20851\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: USDX stalls below 99.75 as bulls hesitate to reclaim lost ground, as seen on the <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Momentum indicators are mixed. The <strong>MACD histogram<\/strong> has flattened, and the signal lines are <strong>entangled near the zero line<\/strong>, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. With price capped below psychological resistance at <strong>100.00<\/strong>, and no follow-through from earlier rebounds, the index may continue to <strong>range trade or test downside supports<\/strong> unless a new catalyst emerges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A decisive break above <strong>99.75\u201399.80<\/strong> could restore bullish sentiment, while a slip below <strong>99.20<\/strong> may bring <strong>98.77<\/strong> back into view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Fed Officials Signal Dovish Pivot<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Adding to the dollar\u2019s woes, <strong>Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller<\/strong> commented on Monday that <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-in\/money\/topstories\/tariff-shock-indicates-25bps-rate-cut-rbi-stance-may-turn-accommodative-report\/ar-AA1CvAzm\">tariff shocks may require rate cuts<\/a><\/strong>, even if inflation stays high\u2014highlighting the unusual policy dilemma the central bank now faces. Traders responded by increasing bets on easing, with <strong>86 basis points of rate cuts priced in for the remainder of the year<\/strong>, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bond markets have calmed slightly, with the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/DGS10\">U.S. 10-year yield holding steady at 4.354%<\/a><\/strong>, after last week\u2019s 50-basis-point surge\u2014<strong>the largest since 2001<\/strong>. Analysts see this pause as temporary, given the broader reallocation out of Treasuries and into global alternatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With policy direction from Washington remaining inconsistent and the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/federal-prepared-intervene-financial-markets-010619908.html\">Fed signalling greater tolerance for easing<\/a><\/strong>, the dollar faces continued headwinds. Near-term technical support for USDX lies at <strong>98.75<\/strong>, while resistance caps movement at <strong>100.20<\/strong>. If upcoming data\u2014particularly this week\u2019s <strong>retail sales and jobless claims<\/strong>\u2014disappoints, the USDX could resume its descent toward <strong>mid-2022 levels<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USDX holds near multi-year lows as erratic trade policy and waning confidence in U.S. assets fuel rotation into alternative currencies. &#8211; vtmarkets.com <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":19387,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9],"class_list":["post-20850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20850","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20850"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20850\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19387"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20850"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20850"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20850"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}