{"id":20212,"date":"2025-06-25T02:57:33","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T02:57:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=20212"},"modified":"2025-06-25T02:57:33","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T02:57:33","slug":"dollar-stumbles-as-ceasefire-lifts-appetite-for-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/dollar-stumbles-as-ceasefire-lifts-appetite-for-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Stumbles As Ceasefire Lifts Appetite For Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The US dollar extended its losses on Wednesday, unable to recover as global markets embraced risk following news of a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel. US President Donald Trump helped broker the deal earlier this week, ending at least temporarily 12 days of aerial conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the de-escalation in the Middle East offered some relief to investors, economic signals from the United States remain mixed. In his semi-annual testimony to Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious tone and gave no clear indication of imminent rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Jerome Powell told Congress the Fed won&#39;t cut rates until it gets a better handle on inflation, adding that he and many at the Fed expect inflation to start rising soon, and that the central bank was in no rush to ease borrowing costs in the meantime <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DfkffWQfy9\">https:\/\/t.co\/DfkffWQfy9<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ix1WFyyVeW\">pic.twitter.com\/ix1WFyyVeW<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1937665795263238334?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 25, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets, however, are moving ahead with their expectations. According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">CME FedWatch Tool<\/a>, there is now an 18% probability of a rate cut as early as July, with close to 60 basis points of easing anticipated by December. This shift is largely driven by softening consumer sentiment. June data revealed an unexpected decline as American households expressed growing concerns about job prospects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This dovetails with a broader drop in yields. The two-year Treasury yield slid to a six-week low of 3.7870%, while the benchmark 10-year yield remained subdued at 4.3043%, reflecting weaker policy expectations in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\"><strong>Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar&#8217;s decline continued, settling at 97.43, well below Tuesday\u2019s peak of 98.99. Price action reflects a persistent downtrend, with the greenback struggling to reclaim the 97.70 level. Momentum remains firmly bearish. The MACD is still in negative territory, and all major moving averages are sloping downward with no immediate signs of reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"445\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/06\/usdx-25-june-1024x445.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20217\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/06\/usdx-25-june-1024x445.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/06\/usdx-25-june-300x130.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/06\/usdx-25-june-768x334.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/06\/usdx-25-june-500x217.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/06\/usdx-25-june-400x174.jpeg 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/06\/usdx-25-june-350x152.jpeg 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/06\/usdx-25-june-200x87.jpeg 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/06\/usdx-25-june.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Bearish momentum dominates as the dollar hovers near 97.30 lows, as seen on the VT Markets app.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Should upcoming economic data continue to fall short of expectations\u2014and if inflation softens despite the reintroduction of tariffs\u2014the Fed may be compelled to lower interest rates by the third quarter. Such a scenario would likely put additional downward pressure on the dollar, especially against the euro and risk-sensitive currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong> and <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarketsmy.com\/login\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading now.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US dollar extended its losses on Wednesday, unable to recover as global markets embraced risk following news of a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel. US President Donald Trump helped broker the deal earlier this week, ending at least temporarily 12 days of aerial conflict. While the de-escalation in the Middle East offered some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/dollar-stumbles-as-ceasefire-lifts-appetite-for-risk\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":20217,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/92"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20212"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20212\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20217"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}