{"id":19461,"date":"2025-03-28T02:45:33","date_gmt":"2025-03-28T02:45:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=19461"},"modified":"2025-03-28T02:45:33","modified_gmt":"2025-03-28T02:45:33","slug":"usdjpy-retreats-as-tokyo-inflation-beats-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/usdjpy-retreats-as-tokyo-inflation-beats-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"USDJPY Retreats as Tokyo Inflation Beats Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-28T104302.364-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19462\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Tokyo inflation rose to 2.9% in March, beating forecasts of 2.7%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>USD\/JPY pulled back to 150.73 as BoJ rate hike expectations firm.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The Japanese yen edged higher on Thursday, with <strong>USD\/JPY retreating to 150.73<\/strong> after touching a session high of <strong>151.206<\/strong>, following a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.stat.go.jp\/english\/data\/cpi\/1581-z.html\">hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI report<\/a><\/strong> that has bolstered expectations for a <strong>Bank of Japan rate hike as early as May<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Consumer price inflation in Japan\u2019s capital rose to <strong>2.9% year-on-year in March<\/strong>, up from <strong>2.8% in February<\/strong> and ahead of market expectations for a <strong>2.7% increase<\/strong>. <strong>Core CPI<\/strong>, which strips out volatile fresh food prices, also climbed to <strong>2.4%<\/strong>, beating consensus of <strong>2.2%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Three regional banks in Japan are teaming up to combat the enduring challenge of a dwindling population that\u2019s threatening their long-term viability. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Rmv9VO9rZ3\">https:\/\/t.co\/Rmv9VO9rZ3<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1905190234209305024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 27, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts now see <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/e01ZVdfzMy\">building pressure on the BoJ<\/a><\/strong> to act, with inflation broadening across categories. Notably in <strong>household goods prices (5.2%)<\/strong>, <strong>clothing prices (3.1%)<\/strong>, and <strong>medical care costs (2.4%)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These gains came despite easing in fresh food and utility costs, suggesting a transition from supply shocks to <strong>demand-driven, stickier inflation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The USDJPY chart on the 15-minute timeframe shows a <strong>range-bound structure<\/strong>, with price fluctuating between the <strong>150.02 support<\/strong> and <strong>151.20 resistance<\/strong> over the last 24 hours. The recent rejection near <strong>151.20<\/strong> suggests strong supply at that level, with the pair pulling back toward <strong>150.73<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-34-1024x438.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19463\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: USDJPY struggles near 151.20; range persists as momentum turns bearish, as seen on the <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD has shifted to a <strong>bearish crossover<\/strong>, and the histogram is fading below the zero line\u2014signaling weakening bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the price is now trading near the 10- and 30-period moving averages, suggesting indecision. A break below <strong>150.60<\/strong> could expose <strong>149.98<\/strong> as the next downside target, while bulls would need to reclaim <strong>151.20<\/strong> to regain control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With BoJ expectations firming and U.S. data expected later this week, traders may begin to unwind extreme yen short positions, especially if <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YBLOPIWODu\">U.S. inflation or growth data<\/a><\/strong><strong> disappoints<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Rate Hike Risk Supports Yen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders brace for risks tilting toward <strong>tightening in May<\/strong>, as <strong>second-round effects<\/strong>, such as <strong>rising eating-out prices<\/strong>, reflect broader pass-through of earlier input cost spikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets may begin to price in a <strong>less accommodative BoJ stance<\/strong>, which could pressure USD\/JPY lower in the coming sessions, particularly if <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us\/fed-should-stay-put-extended-period-amid-policy-uncertainty-kashkari-says-2025-03-26\/\">Fed policy guidance<\/a><\/strong><strong> softens<\/strong> or <strong>Japanese yields begin to climb<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Until then, traders should watch for price action around <strong>151.20 resistance<\/strong> and <strong>149.98 support<\/strong>, with heightened sensitivity to macro headlines, especially from the <strong>BoJ<\/strong> and <strong>Fed speakers<\/strong> ahead of key U.S. inflation data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/JPY slips to 150.73 after Tokyo inflation hits 2.9%. BoJ rate hike odds for May increase as price pressures broaden. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":19462,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-19461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19461","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19461"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19461\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19462"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}