{"id":18934,"date":"2025-03-21T10:35:37","date_gmt":"2025-03-21T10:35:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=18934"},"modified":"2025-03-21T10:35:37","modified_gmt":"2025-03-21T10:35:37","slug":"eur-usd-falls-lagarde-maintains-neutral-stance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/eur-usd-falls-lagarde-maintains-neutral-stance\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD Falls, Lagarde Maintains Neutral Stance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-21T183310.720-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18936\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>EUR\/USD declines to 1.0836 as ECB signals no clear policy direction.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market focus shifts to 1.0725, the 200-day moving average, as next major support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>USD strength persists amid Fed&#8217;s cautious stance on rate cuts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Euro Weakens as ECB Remains Data-Dependent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>EUR\/USD pair<\/strong> continued its downward trajectory, closing at <strong>1.0836<\/strong> after hitting an intraday low of <strong>1.0819<\/strong>. This decline followed <strong>European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde\u2019s neutral stance<\/strong> in her speech to the European Parliament, reinforcing a <strong>strictly data-dependent approach<\/strong> to future policy decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde spelled out the cost of a trade war with the United States for the euro zone&#39;s economy for the first time on Thursday and welcomed Germany&#39;s latest spending plans. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sMlQkxcHiC\">https:\/\/t.co\/sMlQkxcHiC<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/4BwBcIrFtx\">pic.twitter.com\/4BwBcIrFtx<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1902831327260422385?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 20, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>With <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Bzy6VpAxd9\">tariff uncertainties<\/a><\/strong> and <strong>fiscal stimulus concerns<\/strong> weighing on sentiment, Lagarde refrained from providing <strong>any clear forward guidance<\/strong>, leaving the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EJrH8K3D0R\">euro vulnerable to further downside pressure<\/a><\/strong>. Our research desk <strong>expects limited ECB intervention<\/strong> before key economic data determines the next directional move for the euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>EUR\/USD<\/strong> pair has shown a <strong>clear downward trend<\/strong>, dropping from a recent high of <strong>1.09173<\/strong> to a session low of <strong>1.08146<\/strong>. The pair has struggled to maintain upward momentum, as seen in the downward slope of the <strong>moving averages (MA 5,10,30)<\/strong>, which indicates sustained bearish pressure. The <strong>MACD indicator<\/strong> confirms this, with the signal line remaining below the MACD line, reflecting continued negative momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-21-1024x446.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18935\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: EUR\/USD struggles near support at 1.08150 with bearish momentum persisting, as seen on the <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, <strong>support is forming around 1.08150<\/strong>, which prevented further losses. If the pair breaks below this level, it could open the door to further downside movement. On the upside, <strong>resistance is seen at 1.08550<\/strong>, and a break above this level might indicate a potential recovery. <strong>Traders should watch for consolidation or another leg lower<\/strong>, especially if the dollar maintains strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">ECB vs. Fed Policy Divergence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/03\/19\/fed-rate-decision-march-2025.html\">Federal Reserve\u2019s steady stance on rates<\/a><\/strong>, combined with a <strong>hawkish tone from Chair Jerome Powell<\/strong>, has helped sustain <strong>U.S. dollar strength<\/strong>. While the Fed is <strong>expected to cut rates later this year<\/strong>, policymakers remain <strong>reluctant to move quickly<\/strong>, keeping the <strong>dollar supported<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conversely, the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/03\/06\/european-markets-live-updates-stocks-news-and-ecb-rate-cut-decision-.html\">ECB\u2019s reluctance to provide clear guidance<\/a><\/strong> leaves the <strong>euro exposed to downside risks<\/strong>, particularly if <strong>upcoming inflation data fails to justify a policy shift<\/strong>. The market\u2019s <strong>next major test for EUR\/USD lies at 1.0725<\/strong>, a breach of which could open the door for <strong>further losses toward 1.0650<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Euro Vulnerable to Further Declines<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With a <strong>light economic calendar<\/strong> on Friday, traders will look ahead to <strong>U.S. and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/web\/products-euro-indicators\/w\/2-19032025-ap\">eurozone inflation data<\/a><\/strong> for the next major move. If the <strong>dollar continues to hold its gains<\/strong>, EUR\/USD may struggle to <strong>regain bullish momentum<\/strong>, keeping <strong>the 1.0800-1.0725 range in play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, <strong>euro bears remain in control<\/strong>, with <strong>technical indicators favoring further downside unless key resistance levels are reclaimed<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EUR\/USD falls to 1.0836 as ECB stays neutral; key support at 1.0725. Traders watch Fed policy and eurozone data for next move. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":18936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[56,10],"class_list":["post-18934","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-euro","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18934","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18934"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18934\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18936"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18934"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18934"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18934"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}