{"id":18701,"date":"2025-05-20T08:31:23","date_gmt":"2025-05-20T08:31:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=18701"},"modified":"2025-05-20T08:31:23","modified_gmt":"2025-05-20T08:31:23","slug":"crude-oil-steadies-as-market-evaluates-diplomatic-developments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/crude-oil-steadies-as-market-evaluates-diplomatic-developments\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Oil Steadies As Market Evaluates Diplomatic Developments"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Crude oil prices saw little movement on Tuesday, with July contracts for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edging down to $61.97, while Brent futures for July hovered around $65.35. The market remains in a state of indecision, balancing between international diplomatic efforts, robust demand across Asia, and a somewhat unclear economic outlook from both China and the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A major source of uncertainty lies in the ongoing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/iran-says-nuclear-talks-will-fail-if-us-pushes-zero-enrichment-2025-05-19\/?taid=682b7b0b6753f40001873d60&amp;utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&amp;utm_medium=trueAnthem&amp;utm_source=twitter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">US-Iran nuclear negotiations<\/a>. Tehran\u2019s Deputy Foreign Minister warned that talks could stall should Washington insist on fully ceasing uranium enrichment, one of the key sticking points in reviving the 2015 nuclear deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil prices little changed as markets weigh impact of US-Iran talks, demand <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZTnek0Vvtd\">https:\/\/t.co\/ZTnek0Vvtd<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZTnek0Vvtd\">https:\/\/t.co\/ZTnek0Vvtd<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1924704184210776090?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 20, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>A successful deal could unleash an estimated 300,000\u2013400,000 barrels per day of Iranian supply, according to StoneX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Elsewhere, physical demand in Asia remains strong. Refineries across the region ramp up post-maintenance production, supported by favourable refining margins. Singapore\u2019s refining margins, a key regional gauge, averaged over $6 per barrel in May, up sharply from April\u2019s $4.40. This reflects healthy profit levels likely to sustain near-term buying interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, upward momentum is limited, as traders weigh broader macroeconomic concerns. The recent downgrade of US sovereign debt by Moody\u2019s has added to existing worries about global growth prospects, particularly for the world\u2019s top oil consumer. Alongside disappointing industrial production and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/commodities\/chinas-surplus-crude-oil-surged-april-refinery-runs-dipped-russell-2025-05-19\/?taid=682b37116753f4000187375a&amp;utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&amp;utm_medium=trueAnthem&amp;utm_source=twitter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">retail sales figures from China<\/a>, questions are mounting over the resilience of the global oil demand recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BMI\u2019s forecast further reinforces this caution, with analysts now expecting a 0.3% year-on-year decline in China\u2019s 2025 oil consumption. \u201cEven if China adopts stimulus measures, it may take time to have a positive impact on oil demand,\u201d they warned in a note.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Energy markets are also keeping a close eye on any potential developments in <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/oil-steadies-focus-russia-ukraine-233204499.html?ncid=twitter_yfsocialtw_l1gbd0noiom\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Russia-Ukraine peace talks<\/a>. According to ING, any diplomatic breakthrough could result in sanctions being eased, potentially allowing Russian oil back onto international markets, thereby further pressuring supply dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>WTI crude is currently rangebound, consolidating after rebounding from the support level at $60.983 and touching a recent high of $62.683. Price action on the 15-minute chart has flattened out, with candles compressing just above the 30-period moving average. The short-term moving averages (5 and 10) are converging, signalling a loss of directional momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"444\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/05\/oil-20-may.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18703\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/05\/oil-20-may.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/05\/oil-20-may-300x130.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/05\/oil-20-may-768x333.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/05\/oil-20-may-500x217.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/05\/oil-20-may-400x173.jpeg 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/05\/oil-20-may-350x152.jpeg 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2025\/05\/oil-20-may-200x87.jpeg 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Oil holds above $62 after bouncing off $61.00; upside capped at $62.70 as momentum stalls, as seen on the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc\" title=\"\"><mark style=\"background-color:#000000\" class=\"has-inline-color has-pale-cyan-blue-color\">VT Markets app<\/mark><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>The MACD histogram shows waning bullish momentum, with a potential crossover developing near the zero line\u2014suggesting buyers may be losing steam. However, price remains above the mid-range support zone near\u00a0$61.80, hinting at stability for now. Resistance stands at\u00a0$62.30\u201362.70, while a break below\u00a0$61.80\u00a0could expose the lower bound near\u00a0$61.07.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If bulls can reclaim and close above\u00a0$62.30, we may see renewed upside attempts. Otherwise, the bias remains neutral to slightly bearish intraday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With prices oscillating between $60.98 and $62.68, WTI remains firmly within a consolidation zone. A push towards recent highs seems unlikely without clearer signals from either diplomatic developments or key economic data. Traders are encouraged to stay nimble, keeping a close eye on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-05-20\/china-gives-eu-business-groups-high-level-meetings-to-boost-ties?taid=682c092693ea7900013e8973&amp;utm_campaign=trueanthem&amp;utm_content=business&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Washington and Beijing<\/a>, as well as any tangible progress on the geopolitical front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now.<\/strong><br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crude oil prices saw little movement on Tuesday, with July contracts for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edging down to $61.97, while Brent futures for July hovered around $65.35. The market remains in a state of indecision, balancing between international diplomatic efforts, robust demand across Asia, and a somewhat unclear economic outlook from both China and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/crude-oil-steadies-as-market-evaluates-diplomatic-developments\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":18703,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/92"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18701\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18703"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}