{"id":17533,"date":"2025-03-03T04:43:33","date_gmt":"2025-03-03T04:43:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=17533"},"modified":"2025-03-03T04:43:33","modified_gmt":"2025-03-03T04:43:33","slug":"week-ahead-tariffs-tensions-and-turning-points","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-tariffs-tensions-and-turning-points\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: Tariffs Tensions and Turning Points"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-03T124212.170-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17537\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The air feels different when trade wars flare up. The quiet hum of financial markets turns into a low, rumbling growl\u2014uncertain, watchful, ready to snap. Traders don\u2019t like guessing games, and yet here we are again, parsing the latest round of tariffs and their potential domino effect across the global economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>President Trump\u2019s <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/4LNRGQLmrU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">latest round of tariffs<\/a><\/strong>\u201425% on Canadian and Mexican imports, 10% on Chinese goods, and a particularly sharp 10% levy on Canadian oil\u2014has put the market on edge. These aren\u2019t just numbers on a policy sheet; they are pressure points in a system already balancing on a knife\u2019s edge. The moves have fuelled reactions across key asset classes, and the market is playing <strong>tug-of-war with itself<\/strong> as traders assess what comes next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">President Donald Trump\u2019s tariff threats once again lifted the dollar last week, but a growing group of investors is betting against the greenback amid signs the economy is cooling and on concern a trade war will weaken it further <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/wZbdRZ7259\">https:\/\/t.co\/wZbdRZ7259<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1896247080693166402?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 2, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. dollar, ever the safe harbour in a storm, has responded with strength. The <strong>U.S. Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> rose <strong>1.28<\/strong>% to <strong>109.75 <\/strong>as traders piled in, a classic knee-jerk reaction when uncertainty flares\u2014this time fueled by renewed tariff tensions, shifting Fed expectations, and a cautious equity market teetering near resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A strong dollar has its pros and cons. On one hand, it signals <strong>confidence in the U.S. economy<\/strong>; on the other, it makes <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/us-news\/what-could-get-more-expensive-trump-tariffs-rcna190300\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">American exports pricier<\/a><\/strong>, chipping away at trade competitiveness. If tariffs stick and trade partners retaliate, <strong>we could see the dollar firm up further<\/strong>, but that strength comes with a cost. Inflation? Not necessarily\u2014but pressure on corporate earnings? That\u2019s a real risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then there\u2019s the <strong>S&amp;P 500 (SP500),<\/strong> which has been riding this storm like a ship in heavy waters. The broad index has seen <strong>choppy trading<\/strong>, with <strong>Goldman Sachs estimating that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/insights\/articles\/how-tariffs-are-forecast-to-affect-us-stocks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">every five-percentage-point increase in tariffs shaves 1-2% off<\/a> corporate earnings per share<\/strong>. That\u2019s not pocket change. A full 5% hit to earnings is the kind of drag that ripples across sectors, and companies that rely on global supply chains\u2014think <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/03\/03\/auto-giants-scramble-to-suffer-the-least-amid-trump-tariff-threats.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">tech, automotive, and industrials<\/a><\/strong>\u2014are feeling the heat first. Traders aren\u2019t running for the exits yet, but there\u2019s an undeniable air of caution. If earnings compression starts to show up in upcoming reports, the market may start re-pricing risk at a faster clip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, <strong>gold (XAUUSD) <\/strong>has been making its move, gleaming as the ultimate hedge against uncertainty. The yellow metal shot up over <strong>7% <\/strong>since January 20, touching <strong>$2,942.70 <\/strong>per ounce. This isn\u2019t just safe-haven buying\u2014it\u2019s also a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kKvDCDknLm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">hedge against currency fluctuations<\/a><\/strong> and inflationary pressures that could arise if trade disruptions linger. If the S&amp;P starts slipping and dollar strength wobbles under the weight of policy uncertainty, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sXYtiqM4yv\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">gold could push even higher<\/a><\/strong>. But if traders start to believe that tariffs won\u2019t escalate further, some of that safety premium might unwind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Market Performance This Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This past week, financial markets have been caught in a delicate balancing act. With Trump\u2019s tariff policies casting long shadows, traders have been recalibrating their strategies, watching key technical levels for signals on the next major move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>U.S. Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> has been climbing steadily, reaching 107.60. With market sentiment favoring safe-haven assets amid tariff concerns, the dollar could push higher\u2014provided it holds key consolidation levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"491\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-1024x491.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17534\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders will be watching <strong>107.25 <\/strong>and <strong>106.50 <\/strong>closely; if these zones hold, a fresh leg higher could be in the works. However, any break below these levels might signal exhaustion, opening the door for a retracement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In <strong>equities<\/strong>, the <strong>S&amp;P 500 (SP500)<\/strong> has been hovering around the <strong>5,950 <\/strong>level, a critical area that traders have been monitoring for a potential shift in momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"492\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-1-1024x492.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17535\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the rally leading up to this level has been impulsive, triggering caution for those eyeing short positions. Should the index break higher, <strong>6,020 <\/strong>will be a zone to watch for resistance. If sellers step in, a <strong>retracement back toward lower levels could develop, <\/strong>marking a cooling-off period after weeks of upside movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU\/USD)<\/strong> remains in focus after testing a low of <strong>2,834.20<\/strong> before bouncing back. The <strong>2,875 <\/strong>level is now the next key resistance point where price action will determine the next move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"494\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-2-1024x494.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17536\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If buyers maintain control, the rally could continue, especially with market jitters favoring safe-haven assets. However, any rejection at resistance may prompt another leg lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over in <strong>cryptocurrencies<\/strong>, <strong>Bitcoin (BTC)<\/strong> has been making waves after bouncing from the lower end of its monitored 80,000 range. A breakout above <strong>90,000<\/strong> with strong consolidation could invite fresh buyers into the market. But if sellers regain control, the next key support sits around <strong>74,000<\/strong>\u2014a level where bulls may try to defend against further downside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For <strong>forex traders<\/strong>, major pairs are offering plenty of setups. <strong>EUR\/USD<\/strong> took out the <strong>1.03726<\/strong> low, hinting at potential upside momentum. However, traders will be watching for bearish price action at <strong>1.0405<\/strong> and, if the rally extends, at <strong>1.0465<\/strong> as well. Similarly, <strong>GBP\/USD<\/strong> is approaching <strong>1.2660<\/strong>, a level where sellers may begin stepping in. Meanwhile, <strong>USD\/JPY<\/strong> could test <strong>151.70<\/strong>, and if it consolidates, a bullish continuation could emerge near <strong>149.50<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Commodities are also seeing critical movements. <strong>Crude oil (USOIL)<\/strong> has been climbing, with <strong>71.00<\/strong> and <strong>72.45<\/strong> acting as key resistance levels to watch for potential bearish price action. Natural gas traders will be watching <strong>3.72<\/strong> for a possible bullish bounce if prices trade lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Events This Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Tuesday, March 4, brings a key speech from <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/boj-chief-warns-strong-global-uncertainty-us-tariffs-2025-02-27\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Bank of Japan Governor Ueda<\/a><\/strong>. With the <strong>USD\/JPY<\/strong> pair in a consolidation phase, traders will be watching for any hints on policy shifts. If Governor Ueda signals a firmer stance on monetary tightening, the yen could gain traction, putting downward pressure on USD\/JPY.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wednesday, March 5, features a trio of market-moving data points. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/economy\/national-accounts\/australian-national-accounts-national-income-expenditure-and-product\/latest-release\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Australia\u2019s GDP<\/a> (q\/q)<\/strong> is expected to come in at <strong>0.50%<\/strong>, up from the previous <strong>0.30%<\/strong>. If this forecast holds, it would reinforce optimism around the Australian economy, giving the <strong>AUD\/USD<\/strong> a potential short-term lift before encountering resistance at higher levels. The <strong>Swiss CPI (m\/m)<\/strong> is also projected at <strong>0.50%<\/strong>, rebounding from <strong>-0.10%<\/strong>. A stronger-than-expected inflation figure could bolster the <strong>CHF<\/strong>, leading to possible weakness in <strong>USD\/CHF<\/strong>. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/ism-report-on-business\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">ISM Services PMI<\/a><\/strong> is set to rise slightly to <strong>53.0<\/strong> from <strong>52.8<\/strong>. A stronger reading would likely support the dollar, particularly if it signals resilience in the service sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Thursday, March 6, the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/stats\/policy_and_exchange_rates\/key_ecb_interest_rates\/html\/index.en.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">European Central Bank\u2019s Main Refinancing Rate<\/a><\/strong> is expected to decline to <strong>2.65%<\/strong> from <strong>2.90%<\/strong>. A rate cut or dovish rhetoric could put pressure on the <strong>EUR\/USD<\/strong>, opening the door for further downside moves. Traders will be assessing whether the ECB signals a longer-term easing cycle or maintains a cautious outlook on inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Friday, March 7, delivers a high-impact event: the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/nonfarm-payrolls\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)<\/a><\/strong> report. The market is expecting <strong>156K<\/strong> new jobs, up from the previous <strong>143K<\/strong>, while the <strong>unemployment rate<\/strong> is projected to hold steady at <strong>4.00%<\/strong>. If the labor market surprises to the upside, expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve could resurface, reinforcing the <strong>U.S. dollar<\/strong> and pressuring equities. However, a weaker-than-expected report could reignite concerns about economic slowdown, potentially weighing on the dollar and fueling a rally in gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With markets on edge and policy shifts rewriting the playbook, traders will need to stay sharp. As President Trump&#8217;s tariff threats continue unfolding and global economies pivot to match, the scales remain in flux. This week\u2019s U.S. jobs data, the ECB\u2019s rate decision, and fresh inflation prints will test market resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dollar firms and gold holds strength as the global economy rethink game plans around Trump&#8217;s tariff threats.  &#8211; vtmarkets.com <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16960,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[7],"class_list":["post-17533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-week_ahead","tag-stocks"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17533"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17533\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16960"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}