{"id":17298,"date":"2025-02-27T04:49:55","date_gmt":"2025-02-27T04:49:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=17298"},"modified":"2025-02-27T04:49:55","modified_gmt":"2025-02-27T04:49:55","slug":"supply-pressures-bear-down-on-wti-crude","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/supply-pressures-bear-down-on-wti-crude\/","title":{"rendered":"Supply Pressures Bear Down on WTI Crude"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/oil13-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17008\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>WTI crude hovers near $69, the lowest level since December, as supply outlook improves.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal could ease sanctions, boosting global oil flow.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trump&#8217;s tariffs on China and other trade partners raise concerns over demand weakness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Iraq and Kurdistan reached an oil export agreement, but the timeline remains unclear.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Trade Developments Weigh on Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WTI crude oil futures remained under pressure on Wednesday, trading just below <strong>$69 per barrel<\/strong>, marking its lowest level since <strong>December 2024<\/strong>. The market continues to grapple with supply-side developments and economic policy shifts that could shape the demand outlook in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Here\u2019s the latest news and analysis on the oil market <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NrhGmxgT2P\">https:\/\/t.co\/NrhGmxgT2P<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1894893253658309062?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 26, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>downward trend<\/strong> in crude prices reflects growing market expectations of increased oil availability, particularly from <strong>Russia, Venezuela, and Iraq<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brent crude has also struggled to gain momentum, slipping to <strong>$73.60 per barrel<\/strong>, reinforcing the broader weakness in energy markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks Could Boost Supply<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the key factors pressuring oil prices is the <strong>potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal<\/strong>, which has fueled expectations of an eventual easing of Western sanctions on Russian crude exports. Reports suggest that <strong>the <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/02\/25\/europe\/us-ukraine-resources-reconstruction-deal-intl-latam\/index.html\">US and Ukraine have reached a draft minerals agreement<\/a><\/strong>, a move that aligns with <strong>President Trump&#8217;s efforts to broker a resolution to the conflict<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gsmM8jvGv9\">sanctions on Russian energy exports<\/a><\/strong> are lifted, global oil supply could see an increase of <strong>at least 2 million barrels per day (bpd)<\/strong>, according to analysts. This shift would add downward pressure on prices, especially as global demand expectations remain subdued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The market is also closely watching <strong>Trump\u2019s broader trade strategy<\/strong>, which includes <strong>higher tariffs on China, Mexico, and the European Union<\/strong>. These trade policies could slow economic growth and indirectly weaken crude demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Iraq-Kurdistan Oil Agreement Adds to Supply Expectations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elsewhere, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-ae\/news\/other\/iraq-to-resume-kurdish-oil-exports-via-turkey-after-a-two-year-shutdown\/ar-AA1zHqSN\">Iraq announced an agreement with Kurdistan to resume crude exports<\/a><\/strong>, although officials have not provided a clear timeline. If fully implemented, this deal could bring <strong>450,000 bpd<\/strong> of additional oil back to the global market, further softening prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, Trump\u2019s decision to <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/1894835010751824108\">revoke Chevron Corp.\u2019s license to operate in Venezuela<\/a><\/strong> raises concerns over long-term Venezuelan production. However, <strong>short-term supply disruptions remain limited<\/strong>, and Venezuela&#8217;s oil exports are unlikely to see an immediate impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">WTI Crude Faces Bearish Momentum<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Crude oil has faced continued downward pressure, with prices dropping <strong>0.45%<\/strong> in the latest session. The price <strong>opened at $69.074 and closed at $68.763<\/strong>, with a <strong>high of $68.883 and a low of $68.673<\/strong>. The <strong>MACD remains negative<\/strong>, confirming ongoing bearish momentum, while the <strong>short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) <\/strong><strong>are acting<\/strong><strong> as resistance<\/strong>, keeping prices suppressed. A recent low of <strong>$68.36<\/strong> was tested, suggesting that <strong>support is forming<\/strong> at this level, though the broader trend remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-6-1024x445.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17299\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Picture: Crude oil hovers near $68.76 after extended bearish pressure, as seen on the <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking ahead, <strong>if oil breaks below $68.36<\/strong>, further downside toward <strong>$68.00 or lower<\/strong> is likely. Conversely, <strong>a move above $69.10<\/strong> could spark a short-term recovery, with resistance around $<strong>69.50<\/strong>-$<strong>70.00<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders will be watching <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/petroleum\/supply\/weekly\/\">US crude inventory data<\/a><\/strong> later this week for further direction. The <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.api.org\/products-and-services\/statistics\/api-weekly-statistical-bulletin\">latest API report<\/a><\/strong> indicated a <strong>surprise build of 3.2 million barrels<\/strong>, suggesting that demand remains weaker than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With <strong>oil on track for its largest monthly decline since September<\/strong>, volatility remains a key factor for traders navigating the current market landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil struggles near multi-month lows as Russia-Ukraine talks, trade tariffs, and global demand concerns weigh on prices. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-17298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - 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