{"id":16680,"date":"2025-02-20T04:13:35","date_gmt":"2025-02-20T04:13:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=16680"},"modified":"2025-02-20T04:13:35","modified_gmt":"2025-02-20T04:13:35","slug":"aussie-hovers-as-market-weighs-rba-labour-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/analysis\/aussie-hovers-as-market-weighs-rba-labour-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Aussie Hovers as Market Weighs RBA, Labour Data"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Key Points:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AUD\/USD trades near $0.635, with resistance at $0.637 and support at $0.6327.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The RBA signals cautious rate cuts, while labour data suggests resilience in employment.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>Australian dollar<\/strong> is trading around <strong>$0.6348<\/strong>, fluctuating within a narrow range after touching a <strong>high of $0.637<\/strong>. This movement follows the latest <strong>labour market data<\/strong>, which showed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/australia-jan-employment-jumps-44000-jobless-edges-up-41-2025-02-20\/#:~:text=The%20jobless%20rate%20rose%20to,while%20hours%20worked%20dipped%200.4%25.\"><strong>Australia\u2019s unemployment rate<\/strong><\/a><strong> ticked up to 4.1% in January<\/strong>, with <strong>employment rising by 44,000<\/strong>, surpassing expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Earlier this week, the <strong>Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)<\/strong> reduced its <strong>cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%<\/strong>, as anticipated. However, the central bank signalled <strong>caution<\/strong> regarding further cuts, warning that <strong>inflation risks persist<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The RBA delivered a hawkish rate cut. Read today&#39;s Australia Briefing for your daily dose of the best of Bloomberg from Down Under and around the world. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xlTg775AFL\">https:\/\/t.co\/xlTg775AFL<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1891994844270096783?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 18, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Governor Michele Bullock stated that the RBA <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/giEEyelKEH\">cannot declare victory over inflation<\/a><\/strong> and highlighted the <strong>limited room for additional rate reductions<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market sentiment currently <strong>prices in two more 25 basis point rate cuts<\/strong>, forecasting a <strong>cash rate of 3.6% by September<\/strong>. Despite this, traders are hesitant to push AUD\/USD higher, as resistance at <strong>$0.637<\/strong> remains intact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Aussie has been fluctuating, trading within a tight range between approximately <strong>0.63400 <\/strong>and 0.63700. The MACD indicator shows a mixed sentiment with momentum swinging slightly above and below the zero line, suggesting a lack of strong directional momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/27\/2026\/03\/image-1024x441.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16682\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: AUD\/USD consolidating near 0.6348 with choppy price action and no clear breakout direction, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders should watch for a break out of the current trading range for a clearer direction, while also paying attention to key support and resistance levels marked around <strong>0.63400 <\/strong>and <strong>0.63700 <\/strong>respectively. This could provide potential trade setups if the currency either breaks these levels with strong volume or bounces off them with clear rejection signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar remains sensitive to <strong>global risk sentiment<\/strong>, particularly developments in the <strong>US economy and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/P6fpItISft\">Federal Reserve policy<\/a><\/strong>. Recent comments from Fed officials suggest that US rate cuts may be <strong>slower than expected<\/strong>, supporting the <strong>US dollar<\/strong> and limiting AUD upside. Market participants await the <strong>latest <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/articles\/fed-meeting-minutes-interest-rates-today-bb1ba8c9\">FOMC meeting minutes<\/a><\/strong>, due this week, for insights into the Fed\u2019s outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, <strong>China\u2019s economic trajectory remains a crucial factor for the Australian dollar<\/strong>, given <strong>Australia\u2019s heavy trade reliance on China<\/strong>. Beijing has been rolling out <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/asia\/chinas-economic-stimulus-measures-since-september-2025-01-08\/\">measured stimulus efforts<\/a><\/strong>, though markets remain uncertain about the effectiveness of these measures in boosting economic growth. If China\u2019s economy shows signs of slowing, <strong>demand for Australian exports such as <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ASmB1b3ynX\">iron ore<\/a><\/strong><strong> could weaken<\/strong>, pressuring the AUD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Australian dollar remains near $0.635, reacting to labor data and RBA policy signals, while traders await clarity. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16681,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[70],"class_list":["post-16680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-aussie"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16680"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16680\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16681"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}