Retail sales in Greece increased by 4.2% year-on-year in October, compared to a previous decline of 1.7%. This marks a positive change in the country’s economic indicators.
Market changes continue to impact currencies, with EUR/USD recovering to the 1.1750 region as 2025 ends. Despite bearish trends earlier, GBP/USD remains weak near 1.3450 amid a modest USD recovery.
Cryptocurrency Market Overview
The cryptocurrency market remains volatile, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple holding steady after slight gains. Bitcoin could see further gains, while Ethereum and Ripple face resistance.
Gold retreats to the $4,300 area but remains on track for monthly gains. The outlook for 2026 in advanced economies looks promising, with a year of solid economic performance anticipated.
The crypto market had a volatile 2025, with catalysts like favourable U.S. regulations and the rise of Digital Asset Treasuries. This has shaped market expectations going forward.
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The jump in Greek retail sales from a negative reading to a strong 4.2% is a notable sign of consumer health in the Eurozone. We see this as a positive signal for the Euro heading into the new year, especially with the EUR/USD pair already regaining the 1.1750 level. This aligns with recent Eurostat data from November 2025 showing core inflation holding steady at 2.8%, suggesting a stable economic backdrop that could support the currency.
The US Dollar Index is showing weakness as we close out the year, and this may continue into early 2026. After the Federal Reserve held rates steady in its final 2025 meeting, we are seeing the market price in at least two potential rate cuts for the coming year. This fundamental pressure could create opportunities in derivatives that profit from a falling dollar.
Gold’s retreat to the $4,300 area looks more like profit-taking than a change in the primary trend, given its five-month winning streak. We saw a similar setup back in the 2018-2020 period when a shift in Fed policy ignited a major rally in gold. This dip could be an opportunity for traders to position for further gains using call options.
Trading conditions are currently thin, but we expect volumes and volatility to return in the first two weeks of January. With the VIX, a measure of expected market volatility, hovering near multi-year lows around 12, now could be a time to consider buying call options on assets like the Euro or gold to position for expected upside in the new year.
In the crypto space, we see Bitcoin and Ethereum holding steady and preparing for a potential move. Given the positive regulatory developments we saw in the US during 2025, a break of key resistance early in the new year could trigger a significant rebound.
