Nvidia is due to report Q4 (FY2026) earnings after the bell, while the S&P 500 trades in a tight range. The report is being watched against a $66 billion revenue marker, ahead of Nvidia’s GTC event next month.
Nvidia shares are range-bound between $171 and $194, with a mid-point near $182. A key resistance level sits at $196, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from a decline that began in November 2025.
Key Earnings Focus
Attention is on Blackwell chip manufacturing costs and whether they affect Nvidia’s 75% profit margins. Markets are also watching for any detail on the Vera Rubin chip architecture ahead of GTC.
A move above $194 could meet resistance at $196, with a reversal risking a drop back towards $182 and $171. If results are strong and margin concerns ease, a break above $196 could support a retest of record highs.
The S&P 500 has pulled back from a $7,000 ceiling and is moving within $6,700 to $6,990. A nearer-term range has formed between $6,830 and $6,900, with a rejection at $6,909 (61.8% Fibonacci resistance) and the index sitting below the 1-hour 200-EMA.
The 1-hour Stochastic RSI is turning towards overbought levels. A strong Nvidia report could push the index towards $6,990 to $7,000, while a weak one could keep trade between $6,900 and $6,830.
Options Market Positioning
With Nvidia’s earnings just hours away, the options market is pricing in a massive 15% move in the stock by the end of the week. This extreme implied volatility suggests traders are not playing for a small beat or miss but for a major narrative-shifting event. We are seeing a significant bid for downside protection, with the put-call skew reaching its highest level since the broad tech sell-off we experienced in late 2025.
For a bullish reaction, we must see a high-volume break above the $194 level, but the real test is the $196 resistance. Traders looking to play this upside should consider weekly call options to capture a powerful, short-term burst of momentum. A decisive move through $196 would signal that fears over Blackwell chip margins were overblown, likely causing a rapid unwinding of bearish bets.
If the earnings disappoint or guidance on margins is weak, that $194-$196 zone will be a formidable ceiling. A rejection there would be a clear signal to purchase puts targeting the $182 mid-range, with a potential slide to the $171 support floor if the news is particularly bad. This scenario would confirm the market’s growing fears about a slowdown in AI spending, a theme that has been gaining traction since corporate earnings calls in January.
Looking beyond today, the commentary from CEO Jensen Huang will immediately re-price options for the GTC event in March. Any positive hints about the next-generation Vera Rubin chips will likely inflate the value of March and April call options, even if the stock’s initial earnings reaction is muted. We should therefore be prepared to adjust longer-dated positions based on the tone of the conference call.
On the S&P 500, the tight micro-range between $6,830 and $6,900 presents an opportunity for premium-selling strategies like iron condors. With the index pinned below key moving averages and showing signs of exhaustion, selling out-of-the-money calls and puts allows us to profit if the market stays range-bound. This strategy has worked well in the choppy conditions we’ve seen since the failed test of $7,000 earlier this month.
Should Nvidia deliver a strong beat, we can expect the S&P 500 to challenge the top of its mini-range around $6,900 and quickly move toward the psychological $7,000 level. This would be a signal to close out bearish index positions and potentially buy short-dated SPY or SPX calls. A disappointment, however, would validate the recent rejection from the $6,909 Fibonacci level and likely send the index down to test support at $6,830.
