China’s National Bureau of Statistics will release PMI data on Sunday, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing figures set to be published. The release will occur at 0130 GMT on Sunday, 31 August 2025, or 2230 US Eastern time on Saturday, 30 August 2025.
For August, the manufacturing PMI is projected to remain in contraction for the fifth month in a row, with an expected reading of 49.4 compared to 49.3 previously. Factory activity has been affected by trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, recent extreme summer weather, and Beijing’s efforts to reduce excess capacity.
Non-Manufacturing PMI Expectations
The non-manufacturing PMI is anticipated to be slightly above the expansion threshold, with an expected figure of 50.3, up from 50.1. The composite PMI was previously noted at 50.2.
We are watching the PMI data from China scheduled for release this weekend, as it will set the tone for market activity. The key focus is the contrast between the weak manufacturing sector, expected to shrink for a fifth straight month, and the service sector which is still showing slight growth. This division between industrial weakness and consumer resilience creates a complicated picture for the weeks ahead.
The forecast for manufacturing to remain in contraction at 49.4 points to ongoing low demand for industrial commodities. We have seen this pressure building, with iron ore futures slipping nearly 4% over the past month and stockpiles at major ports reportedly rising. This environment supports bearish derivative plays on industrial metals, such as buying puts on copper ETFs or shorting futures contracts.
For currency traders, the Australian dollar remains a key instrument to watch, as its value is closely tied to China’s industrial health. Looking back at similar data releases in 2024, we consistently saw the AUD/USD pair fall sharply whenever Chinese manufacturing numbers disappointed expectations. A miss this weekend could see that pattern repeat, making short-dated options that bet on a lower AUD an interesting strategy.
Equity Markets and Potential Surprises
In the equity markets, the Hang Seng index shows heightened tension, with implied volatility on options rising over 15% in the last two weeks ahead of this data. Since the weak manufacturing number is largely expected, the biggest price move would likely come from a surprise in either direction. This makes strategies that benefit from volatility, such as a long straddle, potentially more effective than a simple directional bet.
We must also consider the possibility of a positive surprise, which would challenge the current market consensus. If manufacturing unexpectedly moves back above the 50-point expansion level, we could see a rapid unwind of short positions in commodities and China-related equities. This risk means that holding aggressively bearish positions without some form of protection could be costly if the data beats forecasts.
