USDJPY started the day with an early dip but soon entered a steady uptrend with minimal corrections. Initially, the pair dropped below its 200-hour moving average during the Asian session, yet buyers quickly reclaimed this level by leaning against Friday’s low. After surpassing the early session high of approximately 144.63, the pair gained momentum and reached new highs.
Looking at the broader hourly chart, the USDJPY is nearing the 61.8% retracement of the June 23 high at 145.978. This area, ranging from 145.919 to 146.288, has served as resistance in recent months. The pair briefly exceeded this range in May and late June, but each breakout was short-lived. The wider range over the last two months is 142.105 to 146.288, and moving firmly above 146.288 would indicate a strengthening medium-term bullish trend.
Short Term Support Levels
Currently, short-term support levels are at 145.347, marking a 50% retracement of June’s high-to-low move, and at 145.216, last week’s high. Maintaining above these levels keeps the buying momentum intact intraday, whereas a decline below them could reduce bullish pressure and refocus attention on the 200-hour moving average.
With the pair approaching resistance levels that have proven tough to overcome in the past, there’s every reason for heightened attention. The region between 145.919 and 146.288 has repeatedly behaved like a ceiling for upward movement. While the pair has temporarily pierced through this zone on occasion, those attempts have been brief, and have failed to attract strong follow-through. Only a decisive break above that upper edge — sustained and confirmed with increased volume — would strongly support the notion that buyers have retaken control beyond short-term tactics.
There’s something to be said about the timing of this move. The market seems to be reacting not just to technical markers, but also to broader positioning and momentum cues. What we’ve noticed is that small corrections during rallies are being bought into quickly, and dips are staying shallow — a sign of determined buying interest. That said, it’s worth recognising that prior attempts to build above 146.288 have been met with fading energy. If current levels only attract limited participation, we might see yet another stall, especially if momentum indicators begin to flatten out or diverge from the price action.
Key Short Term Levels
Short-term levels are key now. The 145.347 mark — essentially the midpoint from June’s broader swing — continues to carry weight as a compass line. A clear daily close under this threshold would imply that today’s positive sentiment is giving way. The zone around 145.216, being last week’s high, adds another visible anchor. If prices begin to trade under both of these levels during an intraday session, it tells us that the conviction to push the pair higher is fracturing.
We’ve kept a close eye on the 200-hour moving average as well — it briefly gave way during the Asian hours but was reclaimed quickly thereafter. This average has become a strong reference point for shorter-term orientation; when breached and held, it alters strategies, especially in leveraged products. If price turns south and settles below this average once more, some of the recent buyers would likely start to unwind, triggering increased volatility.
Considering all this, price action around the next 30 to 40 pips will be watched intensely. There’s not much ambiguity here — the pair is at a juncture, and how it behaves around these price bands will trigger the next set of adjustments. Staying patient and tracking clear breaks or rejections at known levels will allow us to respond with structure. It is not a time for assumptions or abstract projections. We need clean, defined moves backed by real acceleration. That, and nothing less, will justify stepping in again with size.
