The United States Redbook Index, which measures year-over-year performance, rose to 7.6% on 26 December.
This is an increase from the previous figure of 7.2%.
Redbook Index Acceleration
We are seeing the year-over-year Redbook index for the last week of December 2025 accelerate to 7.6%. This indicates consumer spending was stronger than anticipated during the critical final days of the holiday shopping season. This data suggests underlying economic momentum heading into the new year.
This strength in consumption could translate to bullish sentiment for consumer discretionary and retail sector stocks. Derivative traders may consider near-term call options on retail-focused ETFs, as this data often precedes strong official sales reports and positive earnings surprises. This view is supported by the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for December 2025, which recently posted a six-month high of 71.2, showing improved consumer confidence.
However, this robust spending could increase concerns about inflation, potentially delaying any anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows the market is pricing in only a 45% chance of a rate cut by June 2026, down from 60% just last month. Consequently, we could see upward pressure on Treasury yields, making put options on bond futures an interesting hedge or speculative play.
Parallels to Early 2023
We can draw parallels to the environment we saw in early 2023, where strong consumer data consistently pushed back the timeline for a Fed policy pivot. That period showed that while equity markets reacted positively at first, interest rate sensitivity eventually became the dominant factor. Traders should therefore watch the upcoming Consumer Price Index data for December 2025 very closely for confirmation of inflationary pressures.
