GBP/USD hovered near 1.3350 on Thursday after touching 1.3336, its weakest level since late July, and it has stayed below its 200-day moving average since Wednesday. The Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75%, while three of nine Monetary Policy Committee members voted to lift it to 4% and none backed a cut. UK CPI rose to 3.1% in August, a five-month high and the first reading above 3% since March, and the BoE said inflation is likely to rise over coming quarters, with its short-term forecast above 4% in early 2027. The BoE also voted to slow gilt sales to GBP 20 billion a year.
Markets price a 74% chance of a quarter-point rise at the 5 November meeting, taking Bank Rate to 4.18% by year-end, while 12 months out they price four increases to 4.71%; the comparable Federal Reserve path is 4.60%, and at end-2026 pricing the two stand at 4.18% and 4.21%. The next BoE decision is 48 days away, with the Fed meeting on 28 October. UK retail sales are due at 06:00 GMT on Friday (m/m -0.2% after -0.5%; ex-fuel -0.2% after -0.9%; y/y 1.9% versus 1.6%), alongside Fed Governor Bowman at 07:30 GMT and US industrial output at 13:15 GMT, forecast 0.1pp firmer than July. UK flash PMI prints next Wednesday at 08:30 GMT (composite 52.5 prior, manufacturing 51.7), followed by the US at 13:45 GMT (composite 56), then GfK at 23:01 GMT Thursday (-14 prior) and Friday US durable goods plus Michigan, with 1-year inflation expectations last at 4.6%. Resistance sits at 1.3400, with the session high 1.3407 and the 200-day average at 1.3417, then 1.3500; support is 1.3336, then 1.3300, with an objective near 1.3270. Stoch RSI is near 16; the downside view holds while 1.3417 caps, and a daily close above 1.3417 would negate it.
Trading Strategy and Technical Outlook
We advise derivative traders to position for further downside in GBP/USD as the pair remains capped under its 200-day moving average of 1.3417. Despite three policymakers voting to raise the Bank Rate to 4%, the Bank of England’s cautious minutes and concerns over a soft labor market are driving Sterling lower. This bearish divergence—where the pound falls despite a projected yield advantage over the dollar—suggests that selling rallies is the smartest play right now.
For short-term options and futures, we recommend targeting the immediate support at 1.3300, with a secondary objective near the late-July low of 1.3270. Utilizing put options or short futures contracts allows us to capitalize on this downward momentum while keeping tight risk control just above 1.3417. Any daily close above this 200-day average would invalidate this bearish outlook, making it a clean level for stop-loss orders.
Event Risk, Data Watch, and Fundamental Drivers
We must pay close attention to today’s UK retail sales data, where another expected 0.2% monthly decline could trigger a rapid sell-off. This matches recent Office for National Statistics data showing that retail volumes have struggled to gain traction throughout 2026 due to high energy pass-through costs. Buying short-dated out-of-the-money put options before the flash PMI releases next week could protect portfolios against a sudden drop.
While the market still prices in a 74% chance of a rate hike in November, we believe this expectation is vulnerable during the 48-day gap before the next central bank meeting. By comparison, the Federal Reserve’s stronger labor market and the upcoming October 28 meeting give the US dollar a much firmer foundation. Historically, trading the growth divergence between a resilient US economy and a softening UK consumer has yielded highly profitable short-GBP setups.
