SNB chairman Martin Schlegel said the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0% after its June assessment, as inflation remains within its 0%–2% definition of price stability. Swiss inflation has edged up on stronger goods prices linked to higher oil, while the medium-term forecast has been revised slightly higher partly due to a weaker Swiss franc. Inflation is expected to keep rising in Q4 before easing in 2027, and Schlegel said energy inflation should fall over the coming quarters. Swiss inflation is running at 0.8%, with uncertainty still elevated.
The franc has weakened as interest-rate differentials versus the euro and US dollar have widened, making CHF less attractive when spreads are “relatively high”, while low Swiss rates can support carry trades. Schlegel reiterated the SNB’s willingness to intervene in the foreign-exchange market if needed, without indicating a preferred direction, and said the balance sheet’s size is an outcome of policy rather than a target. In markets, USD/CHF was about 0.8265, up 0.24% on the day.
Interest Rate Differentials and the Swiss Franc as a Carry Trade Currency
Today, the Swiss National Bank decided to hold its key interest rate steady at 0%, pointing to a very low domestic inflation rate of just 0.8%. With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate sitting much higher near 4.75% and the European Central Bank close to 3.25%, the interest rate gap remains massive. We believe this wide differential makes the Swiss Franc an incredibly cheap funding currency for global carry trades in the coming weeks.
Derivative traders should exploit this gap by using forward contracts to short the Franc against higher-yielding currencies. Since the USD/CHF pair is currently hovering around the 0.8265 level, there is plenty of room for the dollar to climb as investors chase these yield differences. We recommend using long USD/CHF call options to capture this potential upward movement while strictly limiting our downside risk.
Risks of Central Bank Intervention and Trading Strategy Considerations
However, we must remain highly cautious because the central bank explicitly warned that it is ready to active intervene in the currency market if the Franc moves too sharply. Historically, sudden Swiss central bank interventions have triggered massive, overnight volatility, much like the famous currency shock of 2015. To protect our portfolios, we suggest buying out-of-the-money call options on foreign currencies against the Franc to hedge against sudden, aggressive central bank selling.
With Swiss inflation projected to rise temporarily in the fourth quarter of 2026 before cooling down next year, short-term interest rate swaps deserve close attention. We should monitor Swiss Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) for any early pricing of future policy tightening. Trading short-term interest rate futures to position for a slight rise in implied volatility could yield steady returns as these seasonal inflation pressures build.
