US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran has posed a very grave threat to the United States for a long time. He said talks on Thursday will mainly focus on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Rubio said Iran is not enriching uranium at present, but is trying to reach the point where it can. He also said Iran has conventional weapons designed to attack America.
Irans Ballistic Missile Issue
He said Iran is attempting to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles. Rubio said Iran’s refusal to discuss ballistic missiles is a very big problem.
Rubio said diplomacy should still be considered. He described Thursday’s meeting as the next chance to hold talks.
He also said the status quo in Cuba is unsustainable. He said Cuba needs to change dramatically.
In market moves, gold (XAU/USD) was up 0.05% at $5,167 at the time of writing. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down 1.01% at $65.60.
Trading Implications And Risk
These statements about Iran’s ballistic missile program being a “big problem” create significant uncertainty, which is something we can trade on. The current WTI price near $65 seems to be underpricing the risk of a diplomatic failure that could threaten supply through the Strait of Hormuz. We should consider buying out-of-the-money call options on crude oil futures, as they provide a low-cost way to profit from a sudden price spike if tensions worsen.
We all remember the supply disruptions back in 2025 that caused a temporary spike, and history shows these situations can escalate quickly. Over 20% of the world’s daily oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz last year, according to recent shipping data. Any military posturing in that channel would immediately impact global logistics and send prices higher, making those call options highly profitable.
The gold price, already elevated at over $5,100, confirms the market is seeking safety amid ongoing risks. We’ve seen persistent central bank buying over the last year and inflation reports from late 2025 that refuse to cool down, providing a strong floor for the metal. Continued tough talk on Iran will likely push more investors toward gold, so buying call spreads could be an effective strategy to gain further upside exposure while managing the high cost.
This geopolitical friction is a direct catalyst for market volatility, which has been relatively low so far this quarter. The VIX, which measures expected market volatility, has already ticked up 10% in the last two weeks from its February lows. Buying VIX futures or call options is a direct bet that these talks could break down, causing a broader market sell-off and a surge in fear.
However, we must also consider the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough, as diplomacy is not being ruled out. A successful negotiation would ease tensions, likely causing oil prices to fall and the market to rally. To hedge against this, we could look at buying puts on major energy sector ETFs, providing insurance against any unexpected positive news that resolves the current standoff.
