Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team says the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could deliver a second consecutive rate rise, with former BOJ executive director Momma describing another 25 basis point move as a real possibility. The bank’s base case keeps policy unchanged until the end of October, but Momma assigns a 20–30% probability to a further 25bps hike. If delivered, it would mark the first back-to-back increase since 1989–90 and the first monthly back-to-back since March 1980.
The report argues the initial 25bps hike left the Japanese yen (JPY) directionless and raises the question of whether a follow-up move would intensify pressure on the yen carry trade. It frames the risk as a potential shift in market dynamics, set against prior tightening episodes such as March 1980, when rates reached 9.0%.
Probability Of Back-To-Back Rate Hikes
We are closely watching the Bank of Japan as we approach their crucial policy meeting at the end of October. There is a growing 20% to 30% chance that the central bank will deliver a historic back-to-back 25 basis point rate hike. If this happens, it will be the first consecutive rate increase since the late Cold War era of 1989.
Implications For Traders And Volatility Strategies
We believe derivative traders must prepare immediately for a potential sudden squeeze on the Japanese Yen carry trade. When the BOJ raised rates in mid-2024, the resulting carry trade unwind triggered a dramatic 12% single-day drop in the Nikkei 225. Options traders should consider buying out-of-the-money JPY calls to hedge against a rapid surge in the Yen.
With USD/JPY currency options pricing in higher premium, we recommend utilizing volatility strategies like long straddles. Historical data shows that sudden central bank shifts regularly spark massive moves in foreign exchange markets. Positioning now before implied volatility peaks will give us the best risk-reward ratio over the coming weeks.
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