NZD/USD traded near 0.6050 on Tuesday after a rally from the late November low near 0.5580. It remains above the 50-day EMA at 0.5874 and the 200-day EMA at 0.5845, with Monday closing at 0.6043, down 0.21%.
The pair reached 0.6094 in late January and has since ranged between about 0.6000 and 0.6094 for two weeks. A break above 0.6094 would target the 52-week high near 0.6122, while support sits at 0.6000, then 0.5950 and 0.5874.
New Zealand Labour Data And RBNZ Outlook
New Zealand’s labour data showed unemployment rising to a decade high of 5.4%, while employment growth was 0.5%. The RBNZ meets on Wednesday, 18 February, with the Official Cash Rate expected to hold at 2.25%, and markets pricing the first hike no earlier than October.
US January Non-Farm Payrolls are due Wednesday after being postponed from 6 February to 11 February, with a 70K consensus versus 50K previously. Other forecasts include 4.4% unemployment, earnings of 0.3% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, plus an annual benchmark revision, alongside Fed remarks from Schmid, Bowman and Hammack.
The Kiwi is currently holding near 0.6050, but the landscape just shifted with the US Non-Farm Payrolls data. The report was a significant disappointment, printing at a loss of 15,000 jobs against an expected gain of 70,000, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.5%. This kind of miss immediately weakens the US Dollar and puts pressure on the Federal Reserve’s stance.
This weak US data suggests an immediate test of the 0.6094 resistance level is likely in the coming hours. For traders, buying call options with a strike price at or above 0.6100 could capture this upside momentum. We remember how a similar NFP miss back in the third quarter of 2025 triggered a sharp rally, and history may repeat.
Key Risks And Technical Levels Ahead
However, we must consider the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on February 18th, where the new governor will face high domestic unemployment. While the latest Global Dairy Trade auction showed a slight price increase of 0.8%, recent Chinese PMI data contracting to 49.8 signals weakness from New Zealand’s largest trading partner. This could cap any rally and make selling call spreads above 0.6150 an attractive strategy to profit from stalling momentum.
The daily chart shows a bullish structure, but the Stochastic Oscillator was already near overbought levels before this news hit. A break above 0.6094 seems probable, but the 52-week high near 0.6122 presents a formidable barrier given the mixed signals from New Zealand itself. If the pair fails to break higher, the 0.6000 psychological level remains the key support to watch.
