Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 25bp to 4.5% and adjusted its policy rate path higher, pointing to a 40% chance of another increase over the next six months. The central bank’s guidance indicates no rate cuts before 2028, suggesting a prolonged period of restrictive settings even as the near-term trajectory remains data-dependent.
Updated Economic Projections
In its updated projections, Norges Bank expects mainland growth to stay around 1%, slightly below potential, while unemployment is forecast to edge up.
Inflation Outlook and External Factors
The bank judges the inflation outlook to be broadly unchanged since June, despite lower inflation over the summer and a somewhat stronger NOK, and it cites stronger external impulses such as energy and commodity prices.
