Taiwan’s exports surged in January 2026, with growth reaching the fastest pace since 2010. The tech boom and Lunar New Year timing contributed to this increase, as the US temporarily became Taiwan’s largest export destination.
January Export Surge
January’s exports increased by 69.9% year-on-year, accelerating from 43.4% in December and surpassing market expectations. For the entirety of 2025, Mainland China and Hong Kong were the largest export markets, accounting for 27.7% of exports, compared with 21.8% to the US.
Taiwan’s growth momentum is anticipated to continue through 2026, despite facing a challenging base effect. The net export figures exceeded market forecasts, with Taiwan starting the year with US$18.9 billion in net exports, indicating continuous growth.
The record-breaking export numbers from January 2026 are a strong bullish signal for Taiwan-linked assets. We should anticipate continued upward momentum in Taiwanese equities, especially within the tech sector that is driving this growth. This makes buying call options on the TAIEX index an attractive strategy to capture potential upside in the coming weeks.
The TAIEX index has already surpassed the 22,000 mark for the first time, fueled by key electronics exporters. We’ve seen shares in major semiconductor foundries climb over 15% since the start of this year, and this strong export data suggests order books remain full. Traders could consider long positions on individual tech stock futures or options to gain more direct exposure.
Impact on Currency and Trading Strategies
The massive US$18.9 billion trade surplus puts significant upward pressure on the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD). As we saw throughout 2025 when strong trade figures consistently strengthened the currency, we expect the USD/TWD pair to continue its downward trend. Selling USD/TWD forward contracts or buying TWD call options are viable ways to position for a stronger local currency, which has already tested support near the 31.00 level.
This trend is not isolated; it is tied to the global AI hardware boom, which is projected to grow another 15% in 2026, building on the recovery we saw last year. The temporary shift with the US becoming the largest export destination is a key development, reducing immediate reliance on Mainland China. While the outlook is positive, purchasing some out-of-the-money put options could serve as a cheap hedge against any sudden geopolitical shifts or a slowdown in US demand.
