Private sector credit in South Africa increased to 7.79% in November, up from 7.26% previously. This rise in credit suggests ongoing economic activities within the country.
In the forex market, the EUR/USD pair struggles below 1.1750 as 2025 closes. The US Dollar remains in demand, leading to pressure on this currency pair.
Gold Prices And Interest Rates
Gold prices reversed losses to stay above $4,300, marking the strongest annual gain since 1979. The precious metal benefitted from the prospect of further US interest rate cuts anticipated for 2026.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple recorded minor gains, stabilising as the year ends. Bitcoin may follow an upward trend within a triangle pattern, while Ethereum and Ripple face resistance.
The economic outlook for advanced countries in 2026-2027 appears robust. Many supportive factors from 2025 are expected to continue influencing economies positively in 2026.
The volatile crypto market in 2025 saw influences like favourable US regulatory changes, Digital Asset Treasuries, and tokenization of Real-World-Assets. These elements could impact the crypto landscape much further in 2026.
US Dollar And Federal Reserve Policy
As we close out 2025, the US Dollar is showing temporary strength from year-end position adjustments, even though the Federal Reserve is signaling rate cuts for 2026. This creates a clear opportunity for traders in the coming weeks. We believe this dollar strength will fade, as market pricing from the CME now suggests a greater than 80% chance of a rate cut by March 2026.
This expectation of lower US interest rates is the primary driver behind Gold’s historic rally to over $4,300, its best year since 1979. While some may see the 65% annual gain as a sign to take profits, the fundamental support for gold remains strong. Data from the World Gold Council during the second half of 2025 confirmed that central banks continued to be heavy buyers, adding a layer of structural demand.
In currency markets, pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD are feeling the pressure from the current dollar demand, trading near 1.1750 and 1.3450 respectively. We view this as a potential entry point for long positions heading into the new year. Looking back, we have often seen year-end dollar strength reverse sharply in January once the Fed’s policy path becomes the main focus again.
There is a clear split in the commodity space, with WTI crude oil struggling below $58 due to oversupply fears. This is in sharp contrast to the bullish sentiment in precious metals. Recent EIA reports throughout the fourth quarter of 2025 have consistently shown inventory builds, which could keep a lid on oil prices well into the first quarter of 2026.
Finally, the rise in South Africa’s private sector credit to 7.79% points to underlying strength in some emerging markets. A weaker dollar in 2026 would act as a significant tailwind for emerging market currencies like the South African Rand. This could set up favorable conditions for carry trades or long positions in emerging market currency futures.
