Indonesia’s exports in December surpassed expectations, recording an increase of 11.64% compared to an anticipated decrease of 2.4%. This performance indicates robust export growth for the country at the year’s end.
The Australian Dollar weakened despite China’s Ratingdog PMI reflecting positive movement. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD strengthened past 0.6000 following favourable Chinese PMI data.
USD JPY and Ratingdog PMI
USD/JPY maintained its position above 155.00 amidst gradual monetary policy adjustments from the Bank of Japan. The Chinese Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, aligning with forecasts.
EUR/USD remained below 1.1850 as US Federal Reserve policy signals influenced market sentiment. The GBP/USD maintained stability near 1.3700 as market participants evaluated expectations from the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh’s influence.
Bitcoin saw a decline, dropping below $75,000, continuing a bearish trend with a potential further drop towards $70,000. Global central banks retained their policy rates, with emerging markets suggesting potential easing in the near future.
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We saw Indonesia’s exports for December 2025 shatter expectations, coming in at a massive 11.64% growth instead of a forecasted decline. This surprise suggests a powerful undercurrent of strength in the Indonesian economy that markets have overlooked. Traders should consider this a key signal for emerging market sentiment in the first quarter of this year.
This isn’t an isolated event; it follows the steady Chinese manufacturing PMI data from January 2026, which is now being supported by reports of record iron ore shipments from Australia last month. This points to a resilient demand story in the Asia-Pacific region, even as other global economies show signs of slowing. Therefore, we should be looking at call options on commodity-linked currencies like the Australian Dollar, which may be currently undervalued.
The US Dollar remains a factor, with January’s inflation figures in the US coming in slightly hot at 3.2%, keeping the Federal Reserve on a cautious footing. This creates an interesting dynamic where emerging market strength clashes with a firm dollar. A potential strategy is to use derivatives to play this divergence, such as pairing a long position in the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) against a short one in the Euro.
Looking back at the commodity supercycle in the late 2010s, we saw that strong export numbers often preceded a sustained period of IDR outperformance. Given the unexpected December data, buying out-of-the-money IDR call options with a three-month expiry could offer an attractive risk-reward profile. This allows us to capitalize on potential upside while limiting our initial capital outlay.
The persistent strength in China’s industrial data makes the Australian dollar’s recent weakness look like a potential mispricing. We should be looking at AUD/JPY call spreads to position for a rebound in the Aussie, funded by the low-yielding yen. This trade benefits from both a potential rise in commodity demand and the ongoing policy divergence with the Bank of Japan.
