In June 2025, US factory goods orders decreased by 4.8%, matching estimates. The previous month’s manufacturing data was adjusted to show an 8.3% increase, revised from 8.2%. Factory orders excluding transportation saw a slight rise of 0.4% compared to the previous month’s revised 0.3%. Durable goods orders were revised to show a 9.4% drop, with those excluding defense unchanged at -9.4%. Durable goods orders excluding transportation edged up 0.2%, after a 0.6% increase in the prior month. Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft decreased by 0.8%, compared to the preliminary figure of -0.7%, following a 2.0% rise in the previous month.
Additional data from the Census Department noted new orders decreased by 4.8% to $611.7 billion, following an 8.3% rise in May. Shipments increased by 0.5% to $602.4 billion. Unfilled orders went up by 1.0% to $1,469.9 billion, increasing in 11 of the last 12 months, with the unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio rising to 7.03 from 6.98. Inventories increased by 0.2% to $945.6 billion, with the inventories-to-shipments ratio remaining steady at 1.57. Over the last three months, there were declines of 3.9% and 4.8%, contributing to an overall drop of 8.7%, offsetting the previous gain.
Factory Orders Data
The June factory orders data, now a few weeks old, confirms the choppy economic environment we’ve been seeing. The headline drop of -4.8% was driven almost entirely by the transportation sector, hiding a slight gain in other areas. This suggests underlying weakness is not as broad as the main number implies.
We saw this mixed picture continue with the July jobs report from last Friday, which showed payrolls adding 165,000, just missing expectations. Slower hiring but persistent wage growth puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position ahead of its September meeting. This adds another layer of uncertainty for the market in the coming weeks.
This environment is keeping market volatility elevated, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) holding around the 18 level for the past month. Such an environment punishes traders who bet on a strong, clear direction. It instead favors strategies that can profit from swings in both directions.
Trading Strategies in Volatile Markets
For the coming weeks, we believe traders should consider strategies that benefit from this choppiness, like selling options through iron condors or strangles on major indices. These positions can generate income as long as the market stays within a defined range. This is a way to get paid for the expected sideways grind.
Looking back, this period feels similar to the tariff-driven markets of 2018 and 2019 from our perspective today. During that time, indices saw sharp rallies and sell-offs based on trade headlines, but ultimately made little overall progress for months. We might be entering another such phase of volatile, sideways action.
The crucial detail from the June report was the backlog of unfilled orders, which rose again and sits at a high ratio to shipments. This suggests that while new orders are volatile, factories have enough work to keep them busy for now. It points more to a slowdown rather than a sharp collapse in industrial activity.
