The euro steadied against the US dollar on Monday but remained capped below 1.1500, after sliding to a seven-week low of 1.1454 last week. Political uncertainty in Germany weighed on the single currency following the state-election defeat of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s centre-right CDU in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where it took 4.9% of the vote and fell short of the 5% threshold for entering the state parliament. The outcome came even as lower energy costs offered support.
Oil’s pullback provided a counterweight, with Brent trading near $98.00, around 7% below last week’s highs, after Saudi Arabia repaired its East–West pipeline and lifted September supply volumes. ING maintained a year-end EUR/USD target of 1.160, pointing to similarities in EUR and USD front-end swaps and expecting one more hike from each central bank this year before a pause. The Federal Reserve raised rates last week, while markets also looked ahead to remarks from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee at OMFIF in London and an appearance by ECB President Christine Lagarde in Frankfurt, before September PMI releases due on Wednesday.
Managing Downside Risks Amid German Political Uncertainty
We recommend that derivative traders focus on hedging downside risks for the Euro as political instability in Germany keeps the currency capped below the 1.1500 level. With the EUR/USD pair hovering just above its seven-week low of 1.1454, buying short-term put options with a strike near 1.1400 is a highly practical defensive play. Historically, sudden political shocks in the Eurozone’s largest economy have dragged the currency down by 1.5% to 2% in the weeks following the vote.
Positioning for Volatility Around PMI and Central Bank Signals
The upcoming preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data on Wednesday is the next major catalyst for volatility. We suggest employing a long strangle strategy, buying out-of-the-money calls and puts, to capture any sudden breakout. Past market data shows that Eurozone PMI releases deviating from consensus expectations typically trigger immediate foreign exchange swings of 70 to 90 pips.
We must also align our positions with the reality of hawkish central banks, especially after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled more rate hikes. Although some analysts still target a year-end EUR/USD rate of 1.1600, the front-end swap market suggests any upward movement will be slow and heavily resisted. Selling call options at the 1.1600 level allows us to collect premium while waiting out this period of consolidation.
Lower Brent crude prices, now trading near $98.00, normally provide a statistical cushion for the Eurozone as a major energy importer. However, this relief is being entirely drowned out by the CDU’s historic election defeat, where they fell below the crucial 5% threshold. We advise against buying Euro futures on the oil dip alone, as political uncertainty will likely keep the currency suppressed.
