Equities sold off as oil prices climbed, extending what is often a weak September for risk assets. European markets moved lower, with the region described as more exposed because of its reliance on imported energy. The sell-off came ahead of US inflation data and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, with the prospect of a higher inflation print followed by a rate rise seen as an added headwind for global markets.
Seasonal Risks and Cycles
Seasonal and cycle-based patterns were also cited. In mid-term years, the S&P 500 typically reaches its low point at the end of September, which is about a month earlier than in the other three years of the US presidential cycle, but that still implies roughly two more weeks when equities have historically struggled. While many indices remain above their April lows, the market tone was portrayed as deteriorating quickly if current pressures persist.
