Commodity Price Surges Across Energy and Agriculture
Commodity markets have re-priced sharply from their 2026 lows as physical availability tightens across energy and agriculture. European natural gas is up 204%, while heating oil has risen 149% and diesel 136%; gasoline has more than doubled, jet fuel has gained 98%, and WTI and Brent crude have advanced 85% and 82%. In softs and grains, cocoa has roughly doubled, while rice is up 66% and wheat 45%; cotton has added 41%, sugar 35% and corn 32%. Soybeans are up more than 20% and Arabica coffee has surged 71% this year, with copper, tin and aluminium also higher.
Downstream Impacts and Supply Strains
Supply strains are filtering into downstream markets and logistics. Brent remains above $100 after prolonged Middle East disruption, and damage to Russian refining capacity has tightened fuels; US diesel has moved above $6 a gallon, with distillate inventories about 13% below the five-year seasonal average, while some California pumps have displayed $9.999 during temporary run-outs. VLCC rates have reached record highs, and the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF is up more than 6,200% over roughly 15 months. Saudi Aramco has sought diesel in the Mediterranean and gasoline in Europe, while the six largest iron ore producers depleted 11.1bn tonnes of saleable reserves between 2016 and 2025; Costco has limited purchases of Kirkland motor oil, and G7 governments have committed to increasing domestic critical-mineral stockpiling capacity.
