The European Central Bank is expected to lift the Main Refinancing Operations rate and the Deposit Facility by 25 basis points to 2.65% and 2.50%, with the decision due at 12:15 GMT on Thursday. Unlike July, the meeting includes updated staff projections and a press conference by Christine Lagarde at 12:45 GMT. The backdrop features inflation and growth data: Eurozone HICP rose to 3.3% in August versus the ECB’s 2% target, while second-quarter GDP expanded 0.6% quarter-on-quarter after a 0.2% fall in Q1 and accelerated to 1.2% year-on-year from 0.3%.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook
EUR/USD trades below 1.1650 after retreating from 1.1711, and attention is on guidance around the future rate path. Technical references place the 200-day SMA near 1.1640, with the RSI around 58.50; resistance is flagged at 1.1700, then 1.1750 and 1.1790, while support is cited at the 100-day SMA around 1.1560 and the 50-day SMA near 1.1526. Market pricing also implies another 25 basis points by December, and the ECB’s neutral range is framed at 1.75%–3.00%, with swaps pricing rates at 3.00% over the next 12 months.
