The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has commented on a unique arrangement made by Trump with Nvidia. This deal allows Nvidia to sell certain AI chips to China, with 15% of the revenue directed to the US government.
Bessent sees potential for similar agreements in future cases. He stresses the importance of discussions with China about the use of these chips, noting Chinese tech reliance on US technology. Additionally, he underscores that the proceeds from semiconductors would contribute to reducing US debt.
Unique Government Solution
We are seeing a unique government solution for chip sales to China, which changes the landscape for derivative traders. This is not the total ban we saw being tightened back in 2023 and 2024, but the 15% revenue share for the government alters the profit model for companies like Nvidia. This policy introduces both massive opportunity and significant uncertainty into the semiconductor sector for the coming weeks.
Implied volatility on Nvidia (NVDA) options has surged following these remarks. We’ve seen NVDA’s 30-day implied volatility climb above 55%, a sharp increase from the low 40s we saw in July 2025. Traders should anticipate large price swings as the market decides if this access-for-a-fee model is better than a complete lockout.
The bullish case is that this deal reopens a vast market, potentially driving sales volumes far higher than current estimates. China’s AI infrastructure spending grew by 22% in the first half of 2025, showing their immense appetite for these specific chips will likely absorb the extra cost. Traders optimistic about this outcome should look at call options on NVDA and AMD, betting that the market is focused too much on the 15% fee and not enough on the volume.
On the other hand, a 15% tax on revenue is a direct hit to margins and could trigger downward earnings revisions from Wall Street analysts. We are also watching for any official response from Beijing, as a non-tariff barrier like this could provoke retaliation against other US companies. This risk justifies considering put options as a hedge or a speculative bet on a negative market reaction.
Policy Impact on Tech Sector
This policy could be expanded to other technology sectors over time, as suggested. This makes volatility in the broader tech-focused QQQ ETF something to watch closely. The Nasdaq 100 has already seen increased choppiness, with daily swings exceeding 1.5% since this policy framework was first floated last month.
