S&P 500 futures have moved back to the upper structure after responding to the demand zone between 6,785 and 6,811, with prices rotating around the 6,921 central pivot. Following last week’s responsive move from the demand zone, prices continued to rise through the Asian session and extended gains during the London session.
By the New York opening, prices stayed above the 6,921 pivot, a point previously acting as a balance between acceptance and rejection. This reclaim allows short-term control back to the upper structure, paving the way towards the next cluster of reference levels.
Price Behavior Focus
Prices above 6,921 encourage continued movement towards the 6,937–6,974 zone, where previous supply and short-term extensions will be tested. This zone is seen as the first checkpoint rather than a direct target, focusing more on price behaviour.
The 6,921 level remains the key decision point: acceptance above it sustains the advance sequence, allowing exploration of higher levels. A fall below could indicate a lack of acceptance, leading to a rotation back towards the 6,906–6,869 region. Current focus is on price behaviour as it interacts with defined structural points.
We are seeing S&P 500 futures hold above the key 6,921 pivot level as we head into the final trading week of the year. This technical strength follows a bounce from the demand zone around 6,800 last week. This move is supported by the recent November 2025 CPI data, which came in at a manageable 3.0%, easing inflation fears for now.
With the market holding this pivot, we are using 6,921 as a clear line to define short-term trades. Options strategies could involve buying short-dated call options targeting the 6,974 area or selling put spreads below 6,900 to collect premium. This reflects the market’s optimism following the Federal Reserve’s decision earlier this month to hold rates steady and signal a potential easing cycle in 2026.
Resistance Zone Testing
The immediate focus is now on the 6,937–6,974 resistance zone, which we expect to be tested in the coming days. Historically, this period is known for the “Santa Claus Rally,” where the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 1.3% in the final week of December and the first two days of January since 1950. With the VIX currently subdued around 13, conditions are favorable for a continued, low-volume drift higher into year-end.
However, we must watch for any failure to hold above 6,921, as this would signal a loss of momentum. A break below this pivot could quickly see prices rotate back toward the 6,869 area, invalidating the current bullish setup. Derivative traders would likely respond by buying puts for protection or initiating short futures positions if that support gives way.
The key is to react to how price behaves at these levels rather than trying to predict the outcome. The steady addition of 185,000 jobs reported for November 2025 has created a “soft landing” narrative, similar to what we saw during the market rally in late 2023. This environment supports the current structure, but we remain aware that liquidity is thin during this holiday week.
