The analysis of VanEck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX) utilises Elliott Wave Theory to examine recent performance. From a low in November 2025, $GDX experienced a 5-wave impulse and a subsequent 7-swing correction, known as WXY. This correction is expected to find support in the price range of $78.77 to $75.68, signalling potential buying opportunities.
The Elliott Wave count from December 9, 2025, shows completion of a 5-wave cycle at red 1, with a resulting pullback anticipated. This correction pattern typically occurs before the market resumes its primary trend, providing an opportunity for strategic entries.
Wave 3 Progression
As of December 12, 2025, $GDX exhibited a rebound and reached new highs. It seeks support against the December 9 low while progressing into wave 3. The projection suggests targeting the $96-100 range as a possible future price point.
In summary, the Elliott Wave analysis indicates $GDX is supported against December 2025 lows, suggesting careful monitoring for corrective pullbacks. This method aids traders in predicting the market structure and managing risk more effectively amidst market fluctuations.
Following the impulsive rally from the November 2025 low, we have seen the VanEck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX) find solid footing. The bounce from the support zone between $78.77 and $75.68 earlier this month confirms the bullish outlook. The structure suggests the recent pullback was simply a correction before the next major move higher.
For traders anticipating a rally towards the $96-$100 target area, buying call options is a straightforward strategy. Given the timeframe, using February or March 2026 expirations would allow sufficient time for this trend to develop. Strike prices around the $90 level could provide leveraged exposure to the expected upward move.
Reinforced Bullish Stance
This bullish stance is reinforced by the latest macroeconomic data released in mid-December. The Consumer Price Index report showed inflation persisting at 3.1%, strengthening the case for gold as a hedge. Additionally, recent Federal Reserve communications have hinted at a pause in rate hikes in early 2026, which typically weakens the dollar and supports gold prices.
A more conservative approach would be to sell cash-secured puts, taking advantage of the elevated implied volatility in GDX, which is currently above 35%. Selling a January 2026 put with a strike price near the recent support, such as $78, allows a trader to collect premium. This strategy profits if GDX stays above the strike price through expiration.
We can look back at the sharp rally in gold miners during late 2022 as a historical parallel. That period also featured significant uncertainty regarding Fed policy, which ultimately gave way to a strong move in precious metals as the rate hike cycle peaked. This precedent gives us added confidence in the current technical formation.
The critical level to watch is the low established on December 9, 2025. As long as GDX remains above this price, the bullish structure is intact. Any minor dips in the coming weeks should be viewed as opportunities to position for the next wave up.
