Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 46.2% year-on-year in August, beating the 35.3% consensus and accelerating from 24.1% in July. Electronics exports climbed 131.8% on AI-related demand for integrated circuits, disk media products and PCs, while non-electronics also increased. The expansion was broad-based across major markets, with a favourable base effect also lifting the headline result.
OCBC’s economists lifted their 2026 NODX forecast to 20% year-on-year from 15.2%, after NODX grew 22.4% in the first eight months and assuming 15.6% growth for the remaining four months. USD/SGD eased alongside lower US Treasury yields and a softer US dollar, while technical signals showed daily momentum still bullish but RSI retreating from near overbought levels and a potential death cross as the 50-day moving average moves below the 200-day. Resistance is seen at 1.2790–1.2810, then 1.2840, with support at 1.2740 and 1.27.
Singapore Export Growth And Its Impact
We are seeing incredible strength in Singapore’s export economy, with August non-oil domestic exports (NODX) skyrocketing by 46.2% year-on-year due to massive AI chip demand. While we have upgraded our overall 2026 export growth forecast to 20%, this local economic boom will not be the main driver for the Singapore Dollar in the near term. Instead, we must focus our attention on US Treasury yields and the broader movement of the US Dollar to guide our currency derivative strategies.
Currency Outlook And Trading Strategy
Following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on September 16, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to around 3.55%, dragging the greenback down with it. This decline directly benefits the Singapore Dollar, making USD/SGD short positions highly attractive in the coming weeks. If US yields continue to ease under global monetary pressures, we expect the SGD to strengthen further against the greenback.
From a technical perspective, a major bearish signal is forming as the 50-day moving average prepares to cross below the 200-day moving average, a classic pattern known as a “death cross.” Derivative traders should consider buying SGD call options or utilizing bear put spreads on the USD/SGD pair to capitalize on this downward momentum. We should watch the key support level at 1.2740 closely, while keeping an eye on resistance between 1.2790 and 1.2810 to manage our risk.
