The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped back towards 101.45 after testing near 101.75, despite a run of firm US releases. First-quarter GDP was revised up to 2.1% annualised versus a 1.6% consensus, while personal spending and personal income both rose 0.7%. Core capital goods orders increased 1.6%, and weekly jobless claims fell to 215K compared with a 225K estimate. Inflation, however, offered no acceleration: core PCE printed 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY, matching expectations and prompting traders to reduce the probability of a September rate increase.
Policy pricing remains anchored by a Federal Reserve that is still leaning against inflation after holding rates at 3.75%, with markets continuing to price at least one additional hike by year-end. Oil prices have eased back towards pre-conflict levels as the US-Iran peace framework holds, tempering the inflation impulse. Technically, DXY remains above its 50-period and 200-period EMA in the high-99s, and the daily Stoch RSI is near 70; Thursday’s pullback held above support around 101.30. Resistance is seen at 101.75–101.80, with 102.00 beyond, while support levels include 101.00 and the high-99s.
—Resilience Without Follow-Through
The US Dollar Index had every reason to rally this week but failed to follow through. Even with recent data showing the US economy remains more resilient than Europe’s, the DXY has stalled near the 105.50 resistance level. The market’s refusal to push higher is a more interesting signal than the news itself.
On paper, the continued strength should support the dollar, as GDP growth for the first quarter of 2026 was revised slightly higher to 1.8%. However, the latest Core PCE inflation reading cooled to 2.9%, removing the immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to delay its easing cycle. This in-line inflation print was not the hawkish surprise needed to fuel another leg up.
This does not change the bigger picture, which is a Federal Reserve poised to cut rates from the current 4.5% level later this year. The market has already fully priced in at least one 25-basis-point cut before year-end, a narrative that has capped dollar strength for months. For the dollar to break out, we would need a significant inflation scare that forces traders to remove those rate cut bets.
A market that fades on solid growth data tells us that bullish conviction is low. We see this as a pause within a broad consolidation range, not the start of a new downtrend. The European Central Bank’s more dovish stance continues to provide a floor for the dollar on any dips.
—Options For Navigating The Range
We believe this is a poor environment for chasing new highs, making it a good time to consider selling out-of-the-money call options on the DXY above the 106.00 level. This derivatives strategy allows us to collect premium while the dollar remains range-bound. Any rallies toward that 106.00 strike price represent opportunities to add to these short call positions.
Initial support can be found near the 50-day moving average around 104.80. The next major catalyst will be the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report. A surprisingly weak jobs number would likely accelerate rate cut expectations and could provide the trigger for a decisive break lower.
