Gold rebounded above 5,220 and briefly reached 5,228, a near 5% rise from last week’s low of about 4,960. The move was linked to tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risks, including the chance of US–Iran escalation.
The late-January pullback was described as a normalisation rather than a lasting change in trend. Safe-haven demand was tied to concerns about trade fragmentation and possible effects on global growth, supply chains and inflation.
Technical Levels And Near Term Bias
From a technical view, the move back above the 5,050–5,150 zone shifted the near-term bias to further gains. Daily bearish momentum eased and RSI rose, with resistance near 5,230/50 and a break opening a potential retest of 5,350.
On the downside, support levels were set at 5,120 first, then 5,024 (21 DMA), and 4,850. A risk-off move linked to AI fears, tariffs and geopolitics pushed gold higher while yields fell.
Markets are watching chip earnings, US–Iran talks and Federal Reserve signals. USD shorts may face a squeeze if tensions rise.
We are seeing a familiar setup building in the gold market, reminiscent of the rebound we tracked in early 2025. Just as we saw last year, a late-January price pullback is giving way to renewed strength. Tariff uncertainty and geopolitical stress are once again creating upside risks that warrant attention.
Trade Tariffs And Haven Demand
Safe-haven demand is being revived by the ongoing US-China trade fragmentation, especially following the new 15% tariffs placed on certain electronic components last month. This situation mirrors the tariff rhetoric we observed in 2025, which ultimately fueled a significant rally. The latest inflation data showing a 0.4% rise in the Producer Price Index suggests these costs are already filtering into the supply chain.
Instead of the US-Iran escalation that supported prices last year, markets are now focused on tensions in the South China Sea. This geopolitical risk is keeping a floor under the price of gold as a hedge against conflict. We have seen open interest in gold call options increase by 8% over the last two weeks, according to CME Group data, indicating traders are positioning for a potential breakout.
Technically, bullish momentum is rebuilding as the price has reclaimed the key $2,420 level. For derivative traders, this suggests buying call options or structuring bull call spreads to target a retest of the recent highs near $2,480. Using the 21-day moving average, currently near $2,405, as a guide for placing stop-losses on futures positions would be a prudent way to manage risk.
This combination of factors is triggering a classic risk-off move, boosting gold while government bond yields decline. The US 10-year yield has already fallen 20 basis points this month, making non-yielding gold more attractive by comparison. This environment makes long positions in gold futures contracts a viable strategy, particularly if upcoming economic data points to slowing growth.
