The US moved from reciprocal IEEPA tariffs to a flat Section 122 surcharge after a Supreme Court ruling. President Donald Trump first set a 10% surcharge, then raised it to 15% on 22 February.
The change lowers effective tariff rates for several Asian exporters. China and India see tariff cuts of 7.1 points and 5.6 points, respectively, under the new 15% rate.
Sector Tariff Relief Concentrated
The biggest reductions in tariff impact are in sectors that were most affected by IEEPA measures. These include apparel, toys, games and sport, furniture, lighting, electrical machinery, and aircraft.
These product groups also align with areas where Asian producers hold a large share of global supply. The wider gap between the previous IEEPA tariffs and the new 15% surcharge reduces the tariff burden on exports in these categories.
Given the shift last year to a flat 15% tariff under Section 122, the initial uncertainty has passed. We should now focus on the established beneficiaries of this policy, which provided significant relief compared to the prior IEEPA tariffs. The data from the past twelve months has confirmed improved export competitiveness for key Asian economies.
For traders, this means looking at derivatives on Chinese and Indian equities that benefited most from the change. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI has shown resilience, staying above the 50-point mark for much of the last year, indicating expansion in the sector. We saw a material reduction in tariff incidence for these nations, making their export-oriented companies more attractive.
Market and Derivatives Implications
This is especially true for sectors like apparel, toys, and electrical machinery, where Asian producers hold a large market share. Throughout 2025, ETFs tracking Asian industrial and consumer discretionary sectors consistently outperformed broader market indices. Implied volatility in these specific names has likely decreased since the policy change, making options strategies like selling puts on industry leaders a viable approach.
We are watching U.S. retail sales data closely for any signs of demand weakness, as even a flat 15% tariff impacts consumer prices. The most recent U.S. jobs report showed wage growth slowing slightly to 3.9% year-over-year, which could temper consumer spending. This presents a key risk to the sustained profitability of Asian exporters.
The improved trade dynamics also create opportunities in currency markets. A more stable and favorable export environment supports the currencies of nations like India and Vietnam. Derivative plays on the Indian Rupee or Vietnamese Dong against the U.S. dollar could be considered to hedge or speculate on this continued strength.
