US CFTC data shows oil NC net positions rose to 141.3K. The previous figure was 117.8K.
We are seeing a significant increase in bullish bets on crude oil from large speculators. Net-long positions have jumped to 141,300 contracts, showing that money managers are positioning for higher prices in the coming weeks. This is the strongest conviction we have seen from this group since the fourth quarter of 2025.
Spec Positioning Signals Stronger Bullish Conviction
This shift aligns with fundamental data, as OPEC+ appears committed to maintaining its production cuts through the second quarter. Recent EIA data also supports this view, showing U.S. crude inventories have fallen by over 5 million barrels in the last two weeks, a sharper draw than analysts expected. This tightening supply picture is giving traders confidence to go long.
From a derivatives standpoint, this suggests bullish strategies could be favorable. We should consider buying near-the-money call options for April and May expiration to capture the expected run-up into the U.S. summer driving season. After the price choppiness we experienced in late 2025, the market is now showing clearer directional momentum.
Historically, a rapid increase in speculative net length like this often precedes a price move of 5-10% over the following month. We witnessed a similar build-up in the spring of 2024, which was followed by a sustained rally in WTI crude prices. Therefore, traders should be prepared for increased upward volatility.
