The AUD/USD is poised to test the 0.7094 barrier, its peak since February 2023, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 79 indicating overbought conditions which might limit upward movement. Primary support is situated near the confluence at the lower ascending channel and the nine-day EMA around 0.6931.
After three days of appreciation, AUD/USD trades around 0.7000 in early European hours on Friday, maintaining an ascending channel pattern which implies a prevailing bullish bias. The pair remains above the nine-day and 50-day EMAs, reaffirming upward momentum.
Monitoring The RSI Indicator
The RSI, currently at 76.86, is overbought, which could lead to a pause or minor pullback, yet the momentum stays positive. Further gains could drive the pair towards the upper boundary of the channel near 0.7140.
In case of a downturn, the primary support is near the nine-day EMA at 0.6931. A breach below this could introduce a bearish outlook, pushing the pair to the 50-day EMA at 0.6728.
Today’s currency changes show the Australian Dollar weakened against the US Dollar. The heat map indicates the percentage changes of major currencies against each other, using the left column for the base currency and the top row for the quote currency.
Looking back to this time in January 2025, we saw the AUD/USD showing signs of being overbought with an RSI near 79 while it was trading around the 0.7000 mark. That period of stretched momentum led to a consolidation before the next major move. Today, on January 30, 2026, we are observing a similar pattern, but at higher price levels.
Observing Economic Indicators
The Aussie dollar is currently trading near 0.7250, having been buoyed by stronger-than-expected Australian retail sales data released earlier this month, which showed a 1.2% jump for December 2025. This economic strength has kept the Reserve Bank of Australia on alert, contrasting with a more neutral stance from the US Federal Reserve. This fundamental divergence has been the primary driver of the pair’s strength over the past year.
Similar to the conditions in early 2025, the 14-day RSI is once again elevated, sitting at 74, suggesting the current rally may be overextended. While momentum is positive, this reading warns that the pace of gains could slow, potentially leading to a pullback. For derivative traders, this is a signal to become more cautious about chasing the uptrend.
Given the risk of a short-term reversal, buying AUD/USD put options with a strike price around 0.7150 could serve as an effective hedge for the next few weeks. This strategy allows for participation in downside potential while limiting the risk to the premium paid. Alternatively, selling call spreads with strike prices above the recent high of 0.7300 could be a way to generate income if we believe the pair will trade sideways or drift lower.
The key support level we watched at 0.6931 in January 2025 is now a distant memory, replaced by a new critical zone near 0.7180, which aligns with the 20-day moving average. A decisive break below this new support could trigger a larger correction, making it a key level to watch for structuring trades. The old resistance of 0.7094 has now become a minor support level.
Unlike last year when the AUD was weak against the USD on this day, it is currently showing broad strength, particularly against the Japanese Yen. The AUD/JPY cross has been climbing steadily as carry trades remain popular, with Japan’s interest rates staying near zero. This suggests that any pullback in AUD/USD might be shallower than in other pairs, as underlying demand for the Aussie dollar persists elsewhere.
