The National Bureau of Statistics of China is set to release its quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data at 02.00 GMT on Monday. The GDP is expected to grow by 1.0% in the fourth quarter, down from 1.1% in the third quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the economy is forecast to expand by 4.4%, compared to a previous 4.8% growth.
Retail Sales are anticipated to rise by 1.2% year-over-year in November, a slight decrease from 1.3% in the earlier report. Industrial Production is projected to increase by 5.0% YoY for the same period, higher than the previous reading of 4.8%.
AUD/USD Performance
The anticipated data releases have had a negative effect on the AUD/USD, as the pair weakened with a strengthening US Dollar. Any deviation from expectations in the GDP data could influence the Australian Dollar’s movement against the US Dollar. Better-than-expected data might support the AUD, while poorer figures could apply further downward pressure.
Support and resistance levels highlight potential movement patterns, with the current price nearing recent supports. GDP figures generally have a strong influence on currency values, reflecting economic health. Higher GDP often leads to inflation, prompting central banks to adjust interest rates, affecting currency strength.
With China’s Q4 GDP data due today, January 19th, we must be prepared for immediate volatility in the AUD/USD pair. The market is positioned for a slight slowdown to 1.0% quarterly growth, so any deviation from this forecast will likely trigger a sharp move. Traders should watch the 02:00 GMT release time closely.
If the data beats expectations, we could see the Australian Dollar strengthen as it eases concerns about the economic drag we saw in 2025. This could provide an opportunity to trade a move toward the initial resistance level of 0.6710. A surprisingly strong print on industrial production would further support this bullish case for the Aussie.
Currency Movements and Market Impacts
Conversely, a GDP figure below the 1.0% consensus would confirm the slowdown narrative and likely push AUD/USD lower. This weakness would be amplified by the current strength in the US Dollar, putting the support level at 0.6663 at immediate risk. A miss would feed into the ongoing concerns about China’s property sector that weighed on markets last year.
We must remember this data follows a challenging 2025, a year in which China’s post-pandemic recovery showed signs of faltering. The Reserve Bank of Australia, having held its cash rate at 4.35% since late 2023, is watching this closely, as sustained weakness from its largest trading partner could alter its own policy outlook. This makes the AUD particularly sensitive to any negative surprises from today’s report.
The US dollar’s recent momentum is a key factor that will influence the pair over the coming weeks. The strong US jobs report for December 2025, which showed the economy adding over 216,000 jobs, has pushed the market to expect Federal Reserve rate cuts no earlier than June. This underlying dollar strength creates a significant headwind for AUD/USD, even if Chinese data is positive.
For those anticipating a beat, short-dated call options could be used to play a potential spike in AUD/USD while defining risk. If we expect the data to disappoint, put options offer a direct way to trade a move down toward the December 2024 lows near 0.6614. Implied volatility will be elevated around the release, so positions should be structured accordingly.
