WTI oil prices hovered around $57.85 in early European trading on Tuesday, following stalled US-led peace talks in Ukraine. No major progress was made between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy regarding territory issues.
A recent drone strike accusation by Russia against Ukraine has complicated peace negotiations, potentially supporting WTI prices. Despite geopolitical tensions, there are concerns about global oil oversupply, as OPEC+ announced a slight 137,000 barrels per day increase for December.
The Upcoming API Report
The upcoming American Petroleum Institute (API) report on crude oil stockpiles could influence WTI prices. An inventory draw could suggest stronger demand, boosting prices, whereas a build might suggest weaker demand, potentially lowering prices.
WTI oil, a benchmark for oil markets, is characterised as “light” and “sweet” due to its low gravity and sulphur content. Derived from the US, it is traded globally, and its price is influenced by supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and OPEC decisions.
The API and EIA provide weekly oil inventory data, reflecting supply-demand changes. The EIA is deemed more reliable, though both sets typically align within 1% most of the time. OPEC, consisting of 12 nations, influences WTI prices by adjusting production quotas.
WTI Crude Oil Outlook
As we close out 2025, we see WTI crude oil is trading at a volatile $88.20 per barrel, a significant jump from the sub-$60 levels seen during earlier phases of the Ukraine conflict. The persistent geopolitical risk premium, stemming from the now-frozen conflict in Eastern Europe, continues to be the primary support for these elevated prices. Any renewed flare-ups in that region could easily send prices testing the $100 mark in the first quarter of 2026.
The drone strikes and failed peace talks of the past have cemented a long-term instability that keeps the market on edge. We saw similar long-term volatility during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, which kept a floor under oil prices for years. Therefore, holding some long-dated call options as a hedge against a sudden escalation seems prudent for the coming weeks.
On the supply side, the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month on December 4th, 2025 resulted in the group agreeing to maintain current production quotas into the new year. Their official statement cited concerns over a potential slowdown in global industrial output, with recent PMI data from China dipping to 49.8, just below the 50-point mark indicating contraction. This decision to hold back supply provides a strong counterbalance to fears of weakening demand.
Looking at the immediate future, inventory data will be critical. The weekly EIA reports in December 2025 have shown larger-than-expected draws on crude stockpiles, with an average draw of 3.2 million barrels per week, driven by cold weather across North America. This week’s API and EIA reports will be closely watched to see if the holiday travel season sustained this strong demand.
Given the high implied volatility, traders should consider strategies that define risk, such as bull call spreads, to bet on a continued winter rally. Conversely, with the market priced for tension, any unexpected positive news from Eastern Europe could cause a sharp drop. A well-timed purchase of put options for February or March 2026 delivery could offer significant returns if the geopolitical risk premium begins to fade.
