The short-term Elliott Wave analysis for the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) shows a cycle from the October 28, 2025 low developing as a five-swing diagonal structure. It began with wave ((i)) rising to 73.06, followed by a pullback in wave ((ii)) to 68.20. Then, wave ((iii)) advanced to 79.97, with wave ((iv)) finding support at 72.45. Wave ((v)) completed the sequence at 84.03, marking the end of wave 1 of a higher structure.
The market then entered a corrective phase as wave 2 formed a double three Elliott Wave structure, reflecting complex consolidation. Wave (a) decreased to 81.48 after wave 1, and wave (b) rebounded to 82.96. This correction continued with wave (c) falling to 79.30, completing wave ((w)), before wave ((x)) rose to 83.76. The decline resumed with wave ((y)) unfolding as a zigzag. From wave ((x)), wave (a) dropped to 79.07, and the current wave (b) rally is expected to be temporary, before another decline in wave (c) completes wave ((y)) of 2.
Short-Term Perspective
In the short-term, as long as the pivot at 71.55 remains secure and the October 28 low of 67.35 holds, dips are likely to attract more buying interest, supporting the overall bullish trend for GDX.
From our perspective on December 9, 2025, the gold miners appear to be in a healthy consolidation phase following a powerful rally. We saw GDX surge over 24% from its low on October 28 to a peak of 84.03 just last week. The current pullback is viewed as a complex but normal correction within a larger, sustained uptrend.
Derivative traders should exercise caution in the immediate term, as we anticipate one more leg down to complete this corrective pattern. The ongoing small rally is likely a trap before a final decline towards the low 70s. This presents a potential opportunity for short-term bearish plays, such as buying puts with January 2026 expirations, targeting the completion of this wave.
Longer-Term Outlook
This technical outlook is supported by broader market uncertainty ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The November 2025 Consumer Price Index report showed inflation holding stubbornly at 3.7%, which has tempered expectations for an immediate dovish pivot. This macro-level indecision is creating the choppy, corrective price action we are currently witnessing in the miners.
However, the longer-term outlook remains firmly bullish, so this anticipated dip should be seen as a significant buying opportunity. The market is currently pricing in a 70% probability of interest rate cuts beginning in the second quarter of 2026, which would provide a strong tailwind for gold and gold miners. Traders should be preparing to establish longer-dated bullish positions, such as buying summer 2026 call options, once this correction finds its footing.
This type of “double three” correction is not unusual for GDX within a powerful new bull market. We observed a similar multi-week, frustrating consolidation back in the summer of 2020 before the ETF broke out to multi-year highs. History suggests these phases serve to shake out weak hands before the next major advance begins.
Therefore, a patient strategy is advisable over the next few weeks. One could consider selling cash-secured puts around the 71.55 pivot point to collect premium while waiting for a lower entry. The primary strategy remains to use the expected weakness to position for a much larger rally that we anticipate will unfold in the new year.
