EURUSD has reached new session lows, nearing a key technical point at the 50% retracement from the July 1 peak, at 1.16098. Earlier, the pair fell below its 100-hour moving average at 1.16312, creating a short-term downward bias.
Breaking under 1.16098 could lead to a move towards the 200-hour moving average at 1.15648. The area between 1.16098 and Wednesday’s high of 1.1698 has been a point of contention in recent sessions, with the current challenge focusing on whether sellers can break through this range to maintain momentum.
EURUSD Weakness Emerges
Given the current date of August 11, 2025, the EURUSD is showing significant weakness. The pair is pressing a critical support level at 1.1610, which represents a major battleground for traders. Staying below the 100-hour moving average near 1.1631 keeps the immediate outlook firmly bearish.
This technical pressure is backed by diverging economic data that has emerged in early August 2025. Recent figures showed US CPI inflation for July came in slightly above expectations at 3.4%, while the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report added a solid 210,000 jobs. In contrast, German industrial production figures released last week pointed to a continuing slowdown in the Eurozone’s core economy.
The policy gap between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank appears to be widening, fueling this move. The strong US data gives the Fed room to maintain its restrictive stance, whereas weak Eurozone data has the ECB hinting at a more dovish policy path later this year. We saw a similar dynamic play out in late 2024, which led to a sustained period of dollar strength.
Bearish Strategies Suggested
For derivative traders, this suggests that bearish strategies on the EURUSD could be favorable in the coming weeks. Buying put options with strike prices below 1.1600 would be a direct way to position for a break lower toward the 200-hour moving average at 1.1565. The defined risk of options is particularly useful given the potential for sharp, data-driven reversals.
Risk management remains crucial, as this 1.1610 level could still hold and produce a bounce. Traders taking short positions should consider placing stop-loss orders just above the 100-hour moving average around 1.1635. A decisive move back above that level would invalidate the immediate bearish bias.
