Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) runs a cloud-based AI lending platform in the United States, operating through personal lending, auto lending, and other segments. It trades on Nasdaq under the “UPST” ticker.
UPST is climbing in the Elliott wave sequence from May 2023’s low of $11.93, aiming to surpass the April 2025 low of $31.40. Breaking above the February 2025 high could signal more upward momentum, with a record high of $401.49 noted in October 2021.
Following the May 2023 low, the stock is expected to progress through five swings higher. The formation is poised for further gains, having established several key highs and lows through 2023 and early 2025.
In the current structure, wave (3) has reached significant extension levels. Further upward movement to the $84.68 – $89.82 range is anticipated, while remaining above $73.00, before correcting in wave (4).
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We are watching the stock continue its significant climb from the May 2023 low of $11.93. The current structure is poised to push past the $31.40 mark established in April 2025. A break above the February 2025 high would serve as a strong confirmation of further upward momentum.
For derivative traders, this setup suggests positioning for a near-term rally. We are considering call options with expirations in late August or September to capitalize on the expected move. Buying call spreads could be a prudent strategy to offset the high implied volatility often seen in this name, especially ahead of any corporate announcement.
This technical outlook is bolstered by recent macroeconomic trends, as government data from Q2 2025 showed a slight but encouraging uptick in consumer loan originations. With the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady through the summer, the environment for lending platforms is more stable than it was in 2024. Historically, periods without rate hikes tend to improve investor sentiment for financial technology companies.
A major catalyst is on the immediate horizon, with the company’s Q2 earnings report expected around August 12, 2025. Publicly available data shows short interest remains above 25% of the float, creating conditions for a potential short squeeze on any positive news. This dynamic aligns perfectly with the Elliott wave projection for a powerful move toward the $84.68 – $89.82 target zone.
Our bullish thesis remains intact as long as the price stays above the $73.00 support level. A drop below this point would signal that a corrective wave has likely started, requiring an immediate reassessment of any long positions. We will use this price as our key level for managing risk in the coming weeks.
