The EURUSD has decreased, reaching a new low for the current trading week and re-entering a crucial swing area initially specified between April and November 2021. On the hourly chart, the price previously moved above and settled against the swing area at the end of June and then ascended to the year’s highest point, as seen in data extending back to 2021, last week.
Earlier today, the area tested and rebounded to meet the 100-hour moving average. Sellers positioned themselves against this level, prompting a downward push during the early US session due to a wave of USD purchasing, bringing the pair back into the swing area.
Key Levels To Watch
Should the EURUSD fall below 1.1663, it could potentially lead to further selling, targeting the swing area between 1.1614 and 1.1629.
This article outlines the price action of the EURUSD currency pair. Recently, it slipped lower and returned into a clearly defined region that previously marked multiple turning points in 2021. This area has once more come into play as the pair slid beneath it, triggering a new low for the week. On the hourly timeframe, it’s apparent that the EURUSD had broken above this territory in late June, which was then followed by a sharp rise—eventually moving towards this year’s peak.
Earlier in the day, the price approached the lower limit of the same region, bounced modestly, and found sellers waiting around the 100-hour moving average. That average tends to act as a temporary ceiling during weaker markets. When price hit that level, those prepared to sell seized the opportunity. This resistance held firm, and a fresh wave of demand for the US dollar pushed the currency pair back down.
Now, back inside the familiar 2021 region, attention shifts to a more precise lower boundary marked around 1.1663. If the price pushes decisively below this point, momentum traders could drive it lower still. In this case, interest will naturally fall on the next band of historical levels between 1.1614 and 1.1629. These numbers aren’t random—they reflect prior congestion levels that have frequently been tested and respected by the market.
Trading Strategies
For those of us focused on short-term directional bets, price action around these key levels tells us a great deal. What matters isn’t just the breach, but whether it holds against any retests. The strength and timing of that follow-through can shape trade decisions.
The fact traders stepped in at the 100-hour moving average shows a discipline in positioning—waiting for confirmed resistance before entering. That approach lends itself to lower risk, especially when volatility tightens around recurrent technical levels like those being tested now.
With recent dips breaching previously defended zones, we may need to ask whether sentiment has begun to shift more firmly in one direction. If this turns into a broader readjustment rather than another short-term pullback, price could settle into a different rhythm over the next several sessions.
Given past behaviour and how closely this pair reacts to historical barriers, sharp moves below known areas often invite attention from both technical models and discretionary traders alike. That means data and momentum need to align cleanly to confirm a move lower—should it happen.
From our standpoint, we tend to focus more on how price reacts at known inflection points rather than trying to forecast outright reversals. And with previous structures beginning to unravel, measuring strength via volume and rejections becomes more than useful—it becomes necessary.
