{"id":44629,"date":"2025-11-24T14:10:45","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T14:10:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=29700"},"modified":"2025-11-24T14:10:45","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T14:10:45","slug":"week-ahead-us-ppi-and-prelim-gdp-in-focus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/featured\/week-ahead-us-ppi-and-prelim-gdp-in-focus\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: US PPI and Prelim GDP in Focus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>After months of \u201chigher for longer\u201d rhetoric, the latest labour data revealed a cooling but resilient jobs market. The delayed September NFP showed 119,000 jobs added, double expectations, but the jobless rate rose to 4.4%, the highest in four years. Revisions to July and August figures pointed to a slower trend overall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The mixed tone leaves the Fed navigating a narrow path: Strong hiring in key sectors like healthcare and education contrasts with rising continuing claims. This divergence underpins the growing belief that inflation is cooling faster than employment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Traders Price in a December Cut<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">FedWatch<\/a>\u00a0probabilities flipped sharply last week. Markets now assign a\u00a071% chance of a 25 bp cut\u00a0at the\u00a010 December FOMC, compared with just\u00a039% a day earlier. For January 2026, traders see a\u00a058% likelihood\u00a0of another 25 bp cut, highlighting growing conviction that easing will begin soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lower yields boosted equities and weighed on the dollar. The 2-year Treasury yield slipped toward\u00a0<strong>3.5%<\/strong>, while AI and tech names led the rally. The crypto selloff has weakened, aligning with the broader mild \u201crisk-on\u201d rotation driven by softer yields and rising expectations of a December rate cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Risk Appetite Returns<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 rebounded after two weeks of losses, supported by dovish expectations and strong corporate earnings. Over\u00a080% of S&amp;P 500 firms beat profit forecasts, driven by tech and healthcare sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Dow, S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq futures leap, sparking hopes of rebound from November losses<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FD0h7ZyKDW\">https:\/\/t.co\/FD0h7ZyKDW<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1992776098330153389?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 24, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, oil prices stabilised after rebounding from the\u00a0$57.60 support zone, and gold held firm near\u00a0$4,000, supported by a softer USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"keyevents\">Upcoming Events<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>Date<\/td><td>Currency<\/td><td>Event<\/td><td>Forecast<\/td><td>Previous<\/td><td>Analyst Remarks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>25 Nov<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>PPI m\/m<\/td><td>-0.10%<\/td><td>-0.10%<\/td><td>Soft data could weigh on USD sentiment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>26 Nov<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Core PCE Price Index m\/m<\/td><td>0.20%<\/td><td>0.20%<\/td><td>Inflation gauge to steer FOMC expectations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>26 Nov<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Prelim GDP q\/q<\/td><td>2.50%<\/td><td>2.90%<\/td><td>Focus on growth momentum before FOMC<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"keymove\">Key Movements of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold (XAUUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2026\/04\/image-29-1024x547.png\" alt=\"xauusd\" class=\"wp-image-35323\" title=\"image - VT Markets\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gold held up around\u00a0$4,020, continuing its range between\u00a0$3,940\u00a0and\u00a0$4,075.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Softer yields and rising cut odds underpin support near $4,000.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A break below $3,940 could expose $3,900, while resistance remains at $4,075.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500 (SP500)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2026\/04\/image-28-1024x546.png\" alt=\"sp500\" class=\"wp-image-35322\" title=\"image - VT Markets\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Index rebounded as rate-cut optimism drove tech stocks higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders watch\u00a06,760 resistance\u00a0for directional bias amid easing yields.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sustained buying above 6,700 could open the door to a year-end rally.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USD Index (USDX)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2026\/04\/image-27-1024x576.png\" alt=\"usdx\" class=\"wp-image-35321\" title=\"image - VT Markets\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDX eased from its peak, testing the\u00a099.65 zone\u00a0for support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A bullish reversal could follow if the Fed tempers dovish expectations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Further downside to\u00a099.45\u00a0remains possible if PCE cools sharply.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin (BTCUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2026\/04\/image-26-1024x546.png\" alt=\"btcusd\" class=\"wp-image-35320\" title=\"image - VT Markets\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BTC tested\u00a0$81,700, slipping amid risk rotation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consolidation patterns suggest potential continuation of short-term weakness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders eye support near\u00a0$80,000, with resistance around\u00a0$84,000.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">US Oil (USOIL)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2026\/04\/image-25-1024x546.png\" alt=\"usoil\" class=\"wp-image-35319\" title=\"image - VT Markets\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Crude rebounded from\u00a0$57.60\u00a0toward\u00a0$59.80, aided by improving sentiment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance sits at\u00a0$61.05, with potential pullback zones near\u00a0$59.05.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market focus shifts to OPEC+ signals and global demand data.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The recent rally in global markets is being driven less by fresh data and more by a reset in the Federal Reserve\u2019s tone. John Williams\u2019 comments that policy is only \u201cmodestly restrictive\u201d have opened the door to near-term easing, reigniting risk appetite across equities, gold, and crypto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the probability of a December rate cut climbing to 71%, traders have begun to reprice the path for monetary policy into early 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, the data tells a mixed story. The US labour market continues to generate jobs, but the unemployment rate has drifted higher to 4.4%, and jobless claims have reached levels last seen in 2021. Inflation risks appear to be receding faster than growth, giving the Fed scope to move toward a more neutral stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A December rate cut would validate much of what markets have already priced in, but a hold accompanied by dovish language could still keep risk sentiment buoyant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=market_forecast&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>\u00a0to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After months of \u201chigher for longer\u201d rhetoric, the latest labour data revealed a cooling but resilient jobs market. The delayed September NFP showed 119,000 jobs added, double expectations, but the jobless rate rose to 4.4%, the highest in four years. Revisions to July and August figures pointed to a slower trend overall. The mixed tone <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/featured\/week-ahead-us-ppi-and-prelim-gdp-in-focus\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":48337,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44629","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-week_ahead"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44629","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44629"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44629\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48337"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44629"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44629"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44629"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}