{"id":23139,"date":"2025-06-12T09:19:57","date_gmt":"2025-06-12T09:19:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=23139"},"modified":"2025-06-12T09:19:57","modified_gmt":"2025-06-12T09:19:57","slug":"tariff-concerns-drag-aussie-lower","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/analysis\/tariff-concerns-drag-aussie-lower\/","title":{"rendered":"Tariff concerns drag Aussie lower"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"536\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/Untitled-design-4-1024x536.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23141\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/Untitled-design-4-1024x536.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/Untitled-design-4-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/Untitled-design-4-768x402.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/Untitled-design-4-500x262.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/Untitled-design-4-400x209.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/Untitled-design-4-350x183.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/Untitled-design-4-200x105.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/Untitled-design-4.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar is under pressure as trade tensions escalate, and expectations grow for rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. This market update explores what\u2019s driving the shift in sentiment and what technical signals suggest for the Aussie\u2019s next move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>AUD slips as global risk appetite weakens<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar came under renewed pressure on Thursday, slipping below the $0.649 threshold as global risk appetite weakened and market expectations for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate cut intensified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The currency reached an intraday low of $0.64838 before staging a modest recovery to trade around $0.65052. This decline erased gains from Wednesday\u2019s temporary rally to $0.65459.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Aussie debt allure, a cross-shareholding\u2019s demise, and overblown worries over North West Shelf gas. Read today&#39;s Australia Briefing by <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AngusWhitley1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@AngusWhitley1<\/a> for your daily dose of the best of Bloomberg from Down Under and around the world. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DSXzLgze88\">https:\/\/t.co\/DSXzLgze88<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1929673487741800816?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 2, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investor caution rose sharply following heightened trade war rhetoric from US President Donald Trump, who signalled that formal tariff notices would soon be issued to key trading partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These proposed measures, expected within the next fortnight, are designed to prompt new trade negotiations through unilateral tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In response, markets pivoted away from risk-sensitive assets, driving declines in equities, commodities, and the Australian dollar \u2014 a currency often seen as a barometer of global trade sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Rate cut bets grow as RBA meeting nears<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This renewed wave of protectionism arrives at a time when Australia is already contending with a subdued economic outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market participants are now assigning an 80% probability that the RBA will lower its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% at its upcoming policy meeting on 8 July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Projections for further easing have also gained traction, with rates potentially falling to 3.10% by the end of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Westpac\u2019s Chief Economist, Luci Ellis, suggests the central bank may adopt a more gradual approach. She expects a pause in July, followed by rate reductions in August and November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additional cuts are forecast in February and May 2026, which could bring the cash rate down to 2.85%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, Ellis noted that a faster decline in inflation or a deterioration in employment conditions could prompt earlier action by the RBA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Technical analysis: AUD\/USD holds key support<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On the technical front, AUD\/USD found strong buying interest near the 0.64838 level, triggering a swift rebound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A bullish MACD crossover and strengthening histogram momentum confirmed the recovery, with price action reclaiming the psychological 0.6500 handle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"440\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/image-13-1024x440-1.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23140\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/image-13-1024x440-1.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/image-13-1024x440-1-300x129.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/image-13-1024x440-1-768x330.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/image-13-1024x440-1-500x215.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/image-13-1024x440-1-400x172.jpeg 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/image-13-1024x440-1-350x150.jpeg 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/06\/image-13-1024x440-1-200x86.jpeg 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">AUD\/USD bounces off 0.6483 support with MACD crossover, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/au\/app\/vt-markets-online-trading\/id1372647263?mt=8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"VT Markets app\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pair moved back above short-term moving averages, reinforcing the view of renewed bullish interest. Immediate resistance lies near the 0.6510 mark, and a clear break above this level could open the door to further upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conversely, the 0.6480\u20130.6490 region now acts as a key demand zone and short-term support area. As long as the pair holds above the 30-period moving average, momentum is expected to remain constructive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead, the Aussie is likely to remain volatile in response to upcoming US inflation figures and further developments in trade policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any confirmation of new tariffs or dovish signals from the RBA could place additional downside pressure on the currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders will be closely monitoring macroeconomic releases and revisions to Australian data for cues on the pace and scale of future rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"here\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Australian dollar is under pressure as trade tensions escalate, and expectations grow for rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. This market update explores what\u2019s driving the shift in sentiment and what technical signals suggest for the Aussie\u2019s next move. AUD slips as global risk appetite weakens The Australian dollar came under renewed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/analysis\/tariff-concerns-drag-aussie-lower\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":23141,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23139","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23139"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23139\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}