{"id":17888,"date":"2025-05-29T07:40:58","date_gmt":"2025-05-29T07:40:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=17888"},"modified":"2025-05-29T07:40:58","modified_gmt":"2025-05-29T07:40:58","slug":"forex-market-analysis-29-may-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/analysis\/forex-market-analysis-29-may-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"USDX jumps to 1-week high on tariff ruling"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"536\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/56-3-1024x536.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17890\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/56-3-1024x536.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/56-3-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/56-3-768x402.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/56-3-500x262.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/56-3-400x209.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/56-3-350x183.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/56-3-200x105.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/56-3.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A key US court ruling has shaken up markets, halting a major tariff plan and prompting a shift in investor sentiment. The decision sparked renewed appetite for risk assets and strengthened the US dollar, though uncertainty remains as an appeal moves forward and fiscal concerns linger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>US Dollar Index climbs past 100.00 as court blocks Trump\u2019s tariff plan<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged on Thursday, breaking above the key 100.00 level after a federal court blocked former President Donald Trump\u2019s wide-reaching import tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ruling triggered a rally across equity futures and led to a broad pullback in safe-haven currencies, including the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">If high tariffs and an appreciating yen mean the end of the carry trade, the US dollar will be the canary in the coal mine for all US assets. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/UaKpv9Z8UN\">https:\/\/t.co\/UaKpv9Z8UN<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1927812248287768612?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 28, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investor sentiment shifted sharply into \u201crisk-on\u201d mode, with S&amp;P 500 futures jumping by 1.5%. The removal of immediate tariff risks prompted traders to exit defensive positions, favouring risk assets instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, US Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year yield climbing 4.4 basis points to 4.52%, and the 2-year rising 6 basis points to 4.05%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These yield gains enhanced the dollar\u2019s appeal as capital flowed towards higher-yielding US assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Legal uncertainty and fiscal risks still linger<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the market\u2019s initial optimism, legal and fiscal uncertainties remain. The Trump administration has filed an appeal against the court ruling, raising the likelihood of the case progressing rapidly through the legal system, potentially reaching the Supreme Court.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This development introduces a degree of unpredictability that has not yet been fully priced into the markets. A successful appeal could reverse the current bullish momentum in the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond legal concerns, the ruling also casts fresh doubt on the sustainability of US fiscal policy. The blocked tariffs were expected to generate revenue that would help offset the fiscal burden of Trump\u2019s tax cuts and spending initiatives\u2014already projected to add around $3.8 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Without this revenue, pressure on the federal budget could intensify. Should inflationary concerns re-emerge, longer-term US Treasuries might come under pressure, potentially weakening the dollar over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Technical analysis: Dollar rally pauses near key resistance<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>From a technical perspective, the US Dollar Index rebounded from the 96.844 low observed on 28 May, climbing steadily to challenge resistance at 100.396 before entering a consolidation phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 30-period moving average acted as dynamic support throughout the session, underlining the strength of the uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"446\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/image-34-1024x446-1.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17889\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/image-34-1024x446-1.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/image-34-1024x446-1-300x131.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/image-34-1024x446-1-768x335.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/image-34-1024x446-1-500x218.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/image-34-1024x446-1-400x174.jpeg 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/image-34-1024x446-1-350x152.jpeg 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/17\/2025\/05\/image-34-1024x446-1-200x87.jpeg 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">USDX nears 100.40 after rising from 96.84. While momentum is easing, trend support remains intact, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/au\/app\/vt-markets-online-trading\/id1372647263?mt=8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"VT Markets app\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD indicator registered a bullish crossover during the breakout, with momentum peaking shortly thereafter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, a flattening MACD histogram now points to a potential slowdown in bullish momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite this, the DXY remains above short-term moving averages and continues to hold the psychologically significant 100.00 level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A decisive break above 100.40 could open the door to further gains in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Caution is still warranted. With the Trump administration\u2019s appeal underway, the legal battle surrounding the tariffs is far from over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders are closely monitoring whether the Supreme Court will intervene \u2014 a development that could reignite volatility across both currency and bond markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"here\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A key US court ruling has shaken up markets, halting a major tariff plan and prompting a shift in investor sentiment. The decision sparked renewed appetite for risk assets and strengthened the US dollar, though uncertainty remains as an appeal moves forward and fiscal concerns linger. US Dollar Index climbs past 100.00 as court blocks <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/analysis\/forex-market-analysis-29-may-2025\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17890,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17888"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17888\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17890"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/de-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}